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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: djia101362 who wrote (21808)4/28/1999 7:35:00 PM
From: Sir Francis Drake  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 74651
 
djia - I've been following MSFT for many years. Yes, I'm aware of the historical patterns.

What I'm suggesting is that *perhaps* this time, it's different. The reaon is that it has to be seen in the context of the broader market trends. The conditions that existed when the old patterns obtained, are now very different.

I am not suggesting selling MSFT, nor am I a MSFT bear. I'm trying to anticipate a change - and I'm looking for all the data to build a model of what is likely to happen.

Thus far, it *appears* that the market is flattening - and so MSFT's p/e after being taken down, may *not* go back up as before - short of some very dramatic positive development (perhaps internet related?).

I am reluctant to say that just because a pattern has existed for a number of years, it will therefore continue to be repeated indefinitely.



To: djia101362 who wrote (21808)4/28/1999 7:38:00 PM
From: johnd  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 74651
 
djia, I agree with most of what you say. But 140 by year end
with 1.64 EPS (.35, .40, .39, .5) implies 88 PE and I don't
expect the valuation to get that high.

Note, wall street expects: .35, .36, .33, .43 for a total of
1.47. But of course MSFT beats wall street estimate. That is
why I am counting on 1.64.

I got to consider 2 factors

a) Y2K concerns
b) Win2000 revenues won't kick in until second half of 2000.

Good luck
johnd