Past Results and Future Forecast.
Six months ago I put together a forecast of ACT's operating results.
Although the company has tracked that forecast quite well, I thought
it was about time that I updated this forecast and added some detail
for the next quarter.
Note that the only change I've made to my full year 1999 and 2000 forecasts
is to revise the number of (fully diluted) shares and the corresponding EPS.
Otherwise, I'm holding to my previous full year forecasts for these years.
Also note that these forecasts assume that they merely grow the business
yet we know that they're actively pursuing several acquisition possibilities
and that they expect to close one of these deals during 1999. From my
earlier conversation with CFO Jeff Lavin, we know that they hope to
acquire a west coast company with $100M or more in annual revenue;
this could bring the combined companies 1999 revenue to over $450M
and 2000 revenue to over $570M... it hard to say exactly what the
effect on the bottom line would be; it may be that EPS would be hurt
for a quarter or two but enhanced for the quarters following that.
Finally, from Pino's answer to Vernon Essi, its possible we'll find
some nice surprise (e.g., a juicy contract) from Motorola in the
next couple of weeks; if we get such an upside surprise, my estimates
for Q2 and beyond may prove to be overly conservative.
________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
<-- Actual Results | Estimated Results -->
_____________________________________________________________________________________|__________________________
97 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 98 Q1 | Q2 99 00
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------
Net Sales 264,654 60,943 74,173 78,887 76,526 290,529 81,190 | 85,500 350,000 420,000
Cost of Goods 253,122 58,971 70,187 73,066 69,087 271,311 73,681 | 77,500 315,875 375,900
______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ | ______ ______ ______
Gross Profit 11,532 1,972 3,986 5,821 7,439 19,218 7,509 | 8,000 34,125 44,100
|
SG&A 15,062 3,017 3,440 3,985 4,245 14,686 3,681 | 3,900 15,750 18,900
______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ | ______ ______ ______
Operating Income (3,530) (1,045) 546 1,836 3,194 4,532 3,828 | 4,100 18,375 25,200
Interest Expense 2,706 832 403 509 496 2,241 717 | 730 2,375 2,500
______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ | ______ ______ ______
Income before taxes (6,236) (1,877) 143 1,327 2,698 2,291 3,111 | 3,370 16,000 22,700
Provision for taxes (2,229) (751) 57 531 1,172 1,009 1,245 | 1,350 6,400 9,080
______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ | ______ ______ ______
Net Income (4,007) (1,126) 86 796 1,526 1,282 1,866 | 2,020 9,600 13,620
|
Earnings Per Share (0.45) (0.12) 0.01 0.09 0.17 0.14 0.20 | 0.21 1.01 1.43
Number of shares 8,952 9,063 9,182 9,156 9,195 9,199 9,511 | 9,511 9,511 9,511
________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ |
