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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jan Crawley who wrote (53681)	4/28/1999 10:13:00 PM
From: Glenn D. Rudolph	Respond to of 164684

Price: $207 3/16 Estimates (Dec) 1998A 1999E 2000E EPS: d$0.50 d$0.90 d$0.28 P/E: NM NM NM EPS Change (YoY): NM NM Consensus EPS: d$0.93 d$0.26 (First Call: 24-Mar-1999) Q1 EPS (Mar): d$0.07 d$0.28 Dividend Rate: Nil Nil Nil Dividend Yield: Nil Nil Nil Opinion & Financial Data Investment Opinion: D-2-1-9 Mkt. Value / Shares Outstanding (mn): $31,916/ 154 Book Value/Share (Dec-1998): $0.90 Price/Book Ratio: 230.27x LT Liability % of Capital: 53.6% Stock Data 52-Week Range: $12 7/8-$216 * Symbol / Exchange: AMZN / OTC Options: Phila Institutional Ownership-Spectrum: 35.3% Brokers Covering (First Call): 20 ML Industry Weightings & Ratings** Strategy; Weighting Rel. to Mkt.: Income: Underweight (07-Mar-1995) Growth: Overweight (07-Mar-1995) Income & Growth: Overweight (07-Mar-1995) Capital Appreciation: In Line (28-Jan-1999) Market Analysis; Technical Rating: Below Average (28-Dec-1998) Intermediate term opinion last changed on 09-Mar-1999. The views expressed are those of the macro department and do not necessarily coincide with those of the Fundamental analyst. For full investment opinion definitions, see footnotes. Investment Highlights: Amazon.com is expected to report Q1 results on Wednesday, April 28. We recommend that investors focus on the following: 1. Revenue (sequential and Y/Y). Our estimate is $290 million. Upside possible. 2. Gross customer accounts (new additions). Per the company's pre-announcement, we are looking for 8 million. Upside possible. 3. Gross margin. We expect the margin to be flat at 21.2%. 4. Operating margin pre-goodwill. We expect the operating loss to increase to 13% of revenue. 5. Marketing efficiency (cost per new customer). At 1.8 million net ads, we expect acquisition cost to increase slightly to about $19 (from $11). Upside likely. 6. Operating EPS. Meaningless, except as a benchmark. We are looking for ($0.28). 7. Revenue from existing customers. We expect this to increase slightly to 65%. 8. Initial progress of new auction service. We don't expect management to say much (wish they would, though). 9. Outlook for Q2. We hope to increase our revenue estimates. Comment United States Internet \ Electronic Commerce 27 April 1999 Henry Blodget First Vice President Amazon.com What To Look For in Q1 Results ACCUMULATE* Long Term BUY Reason for Report: Quarterly Earnings Preview Merrill Lynch & Co. Global Securities Research & Economics Group Global Fundamental Equity Research Department RC#20111735 Stock Performance 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09 0.10 0.11 0.12 0.13 1996 1997 1998 1999 Amazon.com Rel to S&P Composite Index (500) (Right Scale)

To: Jan Crawley who wrote (53681)	4/28/1999 10:22:00 PM
From: 16yearcycle	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 164684

Don't misunderstand me. I believe that some companies will emerge so if I am left holding the bag that it will be ok. I like Bezos. We may have 10 years left, not just a quarter or two. But the trading will change character and I think it is already, a little. It feels like guessing how someone you know really well will behave in a certain situation. You know about what they'll do, but is a lttle different each time. I am trying to guess how it will change. Why everyone is panicking with more than 3x revenue grwoth is beyone me. Cramer has NO patience. He is probably reliving CD in his mind. Too bad. When evryone starts focusing again on amzn's next q revenues and they come in at 375, what will the stock be at? I think it will be higher.