I WIN Guess that Spin! Hausmann loses more credibility!
Well, I guess since no one responded I would win by default, thus keeping my copy of Talk N' Play. But just for fun let's see how I did.
The conference call was quite amusing and I am surprised no one has commented on it or the earnings. Anyway, lets go through my conjectures one by one, posted the day before the CC.
1. They managed to get an actual OEM deal for the product - will tout that.
Well, since I meant a new one really, this is only mostly right. However Hausmann did go on for some time about Chumbo.com again. He seemed to think this was quite important - now he feels that that is the best channel apparently. Interesting. Last time it was about the direct to consumer by relations with Won.net and PeopleLink. Obviously this didn't generate any sales so he moves on. This, dear investors, is know as the "shifting thesis" and is often pointed out as something to beware of. I do like the mention of the actual price range (.50 - 2.00) that you tend to get for OEM bundling. Yes, low margins are where the future is!
2. Will ignore all failures to this point and keep babbling about the size of the internet market and it's growth rate, as if they had any part in it.
This one I got spot on. He and others went on and on about how community is hot, and video and audio will merge, and other things about the internet. Well, I got a news flash for Mr. Hausmann. A Community is not "No conferences active". The explosive growth of stocks like Amazon and such are only justified by their explosive growth of users and buyers, which TMSR lacks entirely. When you are actually part of the internet revolution, let us know.
3. Focus entirely on eConference, as it hasn't had a chance to fail miserably yet.
Only half right, and I spelled the thing wrong. He did spend some time on iEducate, but he failed to spend any time on how the features he listed are any different from Microsoft Netmeeting or any plans to counter it. In addition, I would like to point out the iConference is joke on another level. I speak as someone who actually worked on a internet/intranet collaboration tool that did all this and more (only 2 people on internet phone though) called Netopia Virtual Office - 3 YEARS ago. That's right, 3 years, and it actually was the changed name of the 4.0 version of an existing product, which is the dominate collaboration tool of its type in the Mac market. You could even create your own WWW site with it, even do stuff like *control* another Mac computer from a PC from a another PC while the second PC chats in intercom with the first pc and the Mac transfers files from a fourth Pc and the second PC is hosting a WWW page that is recieving instant messages from all the business clients, while a third PC is grabbing files from the first PC and a fifth PC is screen sharing (just watching, not controling) what is happening on the first PC. And everyone on the whole string is chatting all with each other at once using text chat. Got that? Well, you would need a fast network and good PCs, but it worked. And this product has had a hard time penetrating the PC market due to such lightweights as pcAnywhere and LapLink. Market research showed that very few people did more than one connection at a time. I guess Hausmann hasn't done his homework.
4. Pull out another slap happy copy app for wecantalk.com that won't sell either.
Another I got spot on. Now it's iEducation. Spent hours on the name apparently. Oh, and it's going to be included on OEM education bundles. Now what I like about this, is he talked about using it for classes and talking directly to foreign students to assist talk with them in their own language AT NO COST for long distance!! Well, in my real world, where Hausmann's projections apparently don't come from, schools are having problem buying books - they don't need to waste money on microphones.
And the world is round in my world, where those foreign countries are mostly facing away from the sun during school hours. And foreign countries often don't even have computers in classrooms, much less good internet infrastructure. And telephony across countries often assumes that local telephone calls are free like here. Not even England has a flat rate - so it does cost money.
Hausmann must have confused reality with Futurama
He even mentioned the insane idea of religion again. Mr. Hausmann, Real Networks already has a multi-point broadcast audio and video model that would work fine for this. Got it from Intel of all people.
Next loopy idea with no promise?
5. Talk about "validation" and "diffusion tactics" - anything but hard sales figures.
Very close. He did state that wecantalk only accounted for 4% of sales (mentioned that they were 13% of margins, which only makes their overall sinking margins look worse). However, he completely dodged a direct question about consumer interest in the product, instead saying it was "unique" which is only true in the strictest sense of the word. He also answered your question esecurities (and I would of course still like an apology for assuming I was lying without any proof). However, he fudged it by saying that the number of conferences will not indicate the real number of conferences when 6 months from now (an upgrade I guess) will contain the ability to host its own conference. Not only another "shifting thesis", as the original plan was about directing them to the site to gain advertising revenue, but it is something the other competitors already do right now for free. He also stated, in another blow to his credibility, that the product hasn't had enough time (only six weeks) to generate interest so the low (zero is quite low) conferences doesn't mean much. I am sorry, but I seem to remember a beta run from Dec - Jan, and a much touted relationship with Won.net and PeopleLink that has existed for over three months, plus six weeks (I will pretend it is only that) on the market. That tells me the obvious - no game site has a feature it, people still aren't using it. The company *failed* to generate interest in it, most likely because they simply don't have the money and resources. Let's take Everquest, an online only game software. Had a beta about the same time, and was just released in March. Was a smash hit the very first week it hit the market. That's called real marketing, which Thrustmaster just can't afford. This is with no competition on the shelf.
Not only this, but Thrustmaster changed the site to say "there MAY be no conferences" active. Now why did they do that? This is the only company claiming to be an internet company with an internet companies potential for growth and they don't want make the number of users that they really have clear. Meanwhile Amazon and everyone else is shouting it from the rooftops. Unfortunately for them, their initial product design left that hole wide open for scrutiny.
Looks like I did pretty good! Should join the Pyschic friends network - or maybe Hausmann just read what I said and said "Hey that sounds good!"
Other highlights I liked were the obviously staged questions from Black and Company and the other institution.
Another was Hausmann's statement that it wouldn't make sense to spend ad dollars on a product before the users could be certain of getting it on the shelves. Uh, huh Hausmann. Let's see again see how that matches what the rest of the industry does. Since this was a gaming app, lets pull open the lowest circulation of the popular game mags, May 1999, Computer Games Strategy Plus. Unreal Tournament, Starfleet Command, Total Annihilation Kingdoms, Rubies of Eventide, Art of War II, Planetscape Torment, Fighting Steel, Heavy Gear II, MechWarrior 3, Man of War II, Malkari, Aliens vs Predator, Road to Moscow, Force 21, F22 Lightning 3, Baldurs Gate Tales of the Sword Coast, Birth of the Federation, Sanctum Bloodlines. Two of these even have expensive 3 page foldout ads. Not a single one in the stores. Total Annihilation Kingdoms has been advertised for months and isn't due out until June at the earliest. Fact is these companies have been trying to generate, in some cases, press months in advance. It's called marketing, and it again costs money that Thrustmaster doesn't have - again the *real* reason for the problems. TMSR cuts marketing costs, people don't buy, they raise them, they don't meet their estimates for the next quarter. Catch 22.
Still another is the repeated reference to Alaska Airlines and a mention in their in-flight magazine. Who in their right mind would offer that, instead of an industry related mag, to shareholders? Oh, someone who hasn't been even mentioned in industry related mags to speak of.
Hausmann isn't quite on the "silicon snake oil salesman" level quite yet, but I would definitely put him on even with Clinton during the Monica scandal : Everything he said was technically and legally accurate, but definitely misleading or evasive at times. Or, hey, maybe he just hasn't looked into the technology...
Well, I hope that was entertaining for anyone reading. I certainly find this whole situation hysterical. Thrustmaster is getting into the position where they need attention to sell, but they certainly wouldn't want the spotlight on their company heavily. But then they need to because Hausmann clearly wants to squeeze all shorters out. But what long term purpose would that serve? hmmmm.
I see their business plan quite clearly now:
1. Hype
2. Fail at market
3. Ignore failure
4. Repeat until broke. |
