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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bill Harmond who wrote (53737)	4/29/1999 3:46:00 AM
From: dbblg	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 164685

>>Could you expand on what inflection points you see? Sure. -Implementing their audacious supply-chain/distribution plan. They are making all the right moves, but it is awfully hard to tell how this kind of thing is proceeding from the outside (especially since they are building for massive projected demand). The infrastructure they build could eventually provide them with a formidable moat, but this is precisely because these systems are so hard to plan and implement. -Dealing with the order bubble. Record companies and book publishers have noted that "back catalog" sales make up a MUCH larger percentage of sales through online channels than offline ones. Some of this is due to permanently higher consumption, and some of this is no doubt attributable to specialist sites which link to Amazon through the affiliates program. But it is hard to escape the conclusion that some significant chunk of this reflects people filling out collections of a favorite artist. Whether this becomes a problem for Amazon turns on how quickly and successfully they roll out new product areas and, of course, how quickly they add new customers. (I have to say, I wasn't blown away by the choice of "auctions" for their newest area.) I am not that worried about this, but it is worth keeping an eye on. -Sales tax. So far, the only politicians who have made anything of this have been populists calling for the free ride presumably upscale online consumers have been getting at the expense of their impoverished offline counterparts. It is a lousy political argument, and as long as the debate is framed this way, nothing will happen. Some of the antitax think tanks are starting to push the idea that the e-commerce explosion demonstrates how high sales taxes stifle the retail sector of the economy, and that sales taxes should be lowered offline. This is a great political argument, and will probably move the debate to the point where something gets done to make online consumers pay sales tax. (It is worth pointing out that the Congressional moratorium on "new" taxes online leaves a lot of wiggle room.) I don't know how much the addition of sales tax will hurt Amazon's sales; CDNow, where I buy most of my music, charges California sales tax, and it isn't a factor in my decision making. I do think a more straightforward sales tax regime will free AMZN's competitors to do things (such as allowing hybrid online/offline orders, which I would love to see) which they feel constrained from doing now. -Shopping bots. I am not even slightly worried about these (though I think they will be plenty successful, and am long INKT)but I am keeping an open mind, since lots of smart people, including some on this thread, like Rob S., seem to disagree with me. Those are the big ones. Comments?