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Technology Stocks : Harmonic Lightwaves (HLIT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Hiram Walker who wrote (2749)	5/2/1999 2:58:00 AM
From: Stuart C Hall	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4134

Hi Hiram, Why don't you visit the ATHM thread anymore? It's been overrun and now gets around 75-100 posts a day! Anyone have any opinions on these companies: CNXT, NXLK, CTV, RTHM, MFNX Thanks in advance and good luck with HLIT. Stuart

To: Hiram Walker who wrote (2749)	5/4/1999 1:04:00 AM
From: Mark Oliver	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4134

Here is the essence of what AT&T is doing with it's access into Cable Networks. It comes down to who can provide Voice over IP equipment and how it will work. I don't think HLIT is in this market today? Do you have a feeling for how Voice over IP will use HLIT gear? I wonder if the equipment from Antec isn't a better play? They also have T as a major shareholder and they've been building out Media One. Regards, Mark AT&T's grand voice-over-cable plan By TIM GREENE Network World, 05/03/99 BOSTON - After coughing up more than $100 billion, AT&T says its cable TV buying binge is over. From now on, AT&T will simply pursue joint ventures with cable operators to access their high-capacity local loops, says company CEO C. Michael Armstrong. In fact, AT&T is already nego-tiating with cable giant Time-Warner on such a joint venture, Armstrong said last week at a forum of the Massachusetts Telecom Council. AT&T's cable strategy moves the telecom firm away from its well-established circuit-switched roots. Armstrong is betting AT&T's future on IP voice and data over cable networks - technology that is unproven in large-scale rollouts. "It's a bold move, but fortune favors the bold," says Howard Anderson, president of The Yankee Group in Boston. AT&T hopes to wrap up its proposed $58 billion purchase of MediaOne later this year and launch a five-year rollout of local voice and data services over cable infrastructure, Armstrong says (NW, April 19, page 7) . Microsoft, America Online and Comcast are now also interested in MediaOne (see News Briefs, page 4). Using networks AT&T owns outright, the company can reach only 27% of all U.S. customers. That is why joint ventures with other cable operators will be key, Ander-son says. As part of such ventures, AT&T is offering to upgrade cable operator's networks so they can carry voice and data. AT&T then plans to share the profits that come in from those new services, according to Anderson. In a joint ventures, companies create a separate business entity, with each partner owning a portion. Majority ownership in such ventures - not simple alliances - is important to Armstrong. "Owning facilities is the only way to control your own destiny," Armstrong says. "You can't rely on competitors for your network architecture, ordering and facilities." AT&T has already acquired cable operator Tele-Communications, Inc. ($48 billion) and Teleport Communications Group ($11.3 billion), a local access firm whose network is based on cable. The addition of MediaOne will give AT&T the size to successfully negotiate the joint ventures and to compete against regional Bell operating companies. "[Our size will] allow us to go on the offense after the local exchange carriers," Armstrong says. While cable networks cater mainly to residential customers, Armstrong is eyeing business customers. He says AT&T is investing in gear that can deliver IP, frame relay, ATM and other services that businesses typically want over these new networks. The AT&T plan to run IP voice over cable depends on equipment still being developed, Armstrong acknowledges. Once the equipment is ready to deploy sometime late next year, IP voice over cable will cut the cost of gear from $750 per customer for circuit-switched connections to $300 to $500 per customer. The lower cost to set up the voice services will let AT&T offer additional phone lines with distinctive rings at a few dollars each, undercutting RBOC rates of $15 to $20 per month. Because the IP voice gear isn't ready yet, AT&T is trialing voice-over-cable service in Freemont, Calif., using circuit-switched equipment. The trial is designed to iron out kinks in the ordering, provisioning, maintenance and billing of local voice services before extending the trial to paying customers in the third quarter. The paying trials will be expanded to seven or eight other cities by year-end and then extended gradually through 2000 and 2001, Armstrong says. AT&T can't try a local services sales blitz right away because the company doesn't have enough people to handle the flood of new customers it might get. Short term, AT&T will rely on reselling phone service from RBOCs to reach the customers it cannot reach directly on its cable networks or via AT&T's fixed PCS wireless network. The PCS network can provide up to four phone lines and a personal T-1 per customer. In shifting focus to the local market, Armstrong is facing a new reality: long-distance competition is only getting stiffer. Each year 25% of long-distance customers switch their long-distance carrier. And profits from long distance will decline as prices drop. With cable networks in its pocket, AT&T can offer more than just cheaper and cheaper phone service. The company can offer entertainment, Internet access and phone service to hang onto residential customers. "AT&T is saying, 'I need three options to get into that home,' " Anderson says. Armstrong says AT&T will continue to push RBOCs to streamline ordering systems so customers can easily switch their local services.

To: Hiram Walker who wrote (2749)	5/5/1999 1:39:00 PM
From: Mark Oliver	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4134

Looks like sellers have been taking every advantage for the last few days to sell. They've done it in a way that hasn't killed the stock in one fell swoop, but clearly it has had an effect. In the mean time, lot's of news on the Media One deal. Perhaps the most important is T will use Comcast network for telephone and that Microsoft is buying stake of 2-3% in T to assure they will use Microsoft in set top boxes. biz.yahoo.com Now, what does this mean? Will Comcast be changing equipment to satisfy T for phone service? Doubtful, but will the Microsoft set top box change anything for HLIT? It seems like Comcast is a good HLIT customer, so their getting some of the Media One pie isn't so bad, is it? Regards, Mark