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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Moominoid who wrote (12381)	4/29/1999 11:11:00 AM
From: HairBall	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

David Stern: How are the transports going vis a vis Dow Theory Buy Signal? If you are actually asking me, I can only say I am not a student of Dow Theory. I use my own system and analysis. I do look for confirmation with in the Dow Indices and I do look for directional leadership. If you are trying to make a point, I suggest you post your complete thoughts as I for one would be interested in the perspective of someone who follows "Dow Theory". So far, only the Dow Industrials has set new highs, but the Transports are close with the Utilities trailing some what. The aggressive rise in these Indices can not be ignored. But one needs to always keep the broader Market in perspective and try to note what may be causing the rise in these Indices. Regards, LG

To: Moominoid who wrote (12381)	4/29/1999 11:15:00 AM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Just updated the INDEX UPDATE at 11:10amhttp://www.homestead.com/marketdirectionanalysis/ seeya

To: Moominoid who wrote (12381)	4/29/1999 11:26:00 AM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

David, The Transports are getting close to their all-time highs, but until it is broken to the upside significantly and sustained it will only mean that we got close. The day we break it to the upside the media and many will highlight how it did confirm the rally in the DOW, but again it needs to be sustained. For me to fully accept a break to new highs, I need to see about 5 days for it to sustain above the previous highs. It could just be a test of the previous highs and if it fails it could be a possible DOUBLE TOP which is a negative. seeya

To: Moominoid who wrote (12381)	4/30/1999 7:46:00 AM
From: bearshark	Respond to of 99985

David: The classical read of Dow Theory on confirmation is that the longer the age of the primary move, the less significance there is to confirmation. Another important classical feature is that only closing prices are used in its calculation. If the INDU and the TRAN were both moving from bear markets and they confirmed a true breakout based upon Dow Theory moves in its various trends, then we would be on to something big. However, in the late stages of moves after a Dow Theory confirmation is made, the market can tank suddenly and it has happened.