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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (43491)	4/29/1999 11:25:00 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Respond to of 95453

< XOI having made a new all time high, isn't it just a matter of time > George; I ultimately agree - just a matter of time. The XOI is moving on earnings strength, the euphoria and the reality of crude prices falls right to their bottom line - we still have to wait here untill higher Oil Prices translate into higher rig utilization, dayrates, new orders and most importantly - earnings; before we build another 30 point leg imho . Yesterday with ESV nearing $20 with virtually no earnings upside through the end of 1999 is a barometer on how far forward the Street will look in valuing us here. Untill we have another major catalyst - the ultimate ''BUY" signals being when either US storage falls under 325M boe - guarantees Oil price sustainability, or when 150 rigs are at work in the GOM; virtually guarantees higher dayrates - untill then we move in trading ranges . Gary's E-wave analysis seems to still be on the money... maybe we move to a OSX 68-85 range here untill the next earnings period - or some major surprise with OPEC... while I am happy as can be with $18 Oil - all the analysts predicted these numbers would bring $15 Oil - and we all would have been happy with that 4 months ago... Pit Traders control Oil prices - and its sustainability, lets hope that the Pit Traders don't take too much profit on the OPEC May release, and that OPEC hasn't been given too much - too soon, here and a reason to cheat - 3-4 months out. That is a biggie imho; we'll start hearing predictions of OPEC cheating - as the incentive of near overnight $18 Oil is an unquestionable temptation. Everyone allready knows the initial compliance is solid. 3-4 months out will be the test. I hope they pass... Venezeula will be the one to watch. We are now in a deadzone info-wise, between earnings periods. Crude at $18 - isn't ''new'' news any longer - no one in their right mind doesn't have that factored into current prices. Also, Crude prices near fully reflect the expected (known) strong initial compliance by OPEC - coming May 10th. While contrary to rumor, I am not predicting new lows for the OSX -(post the link anyone) I think we trade in ''ranges'' and move up in a stair step fashion from here. The easy money has been made. Nothing wrong with slow & steady imho ! I fail to see a major nearterm catalyst to ''spike'' us on another major 30 point run here. Some here seem to think that Oil's going to go to $25 overnight (who knows) and we just ramp onto OSX 100 - with this type of fundamental utilization, dayrate and earnings base ? I disagree... as to the ''timing'' not the end result. Quite simply; nothing has proven to be so profitable as to selling into the euphoria - and buying the retracements on those blood red days.... have to keep doing it untill it fails to work. Congrats SargeK - here's an Olive Branch - kudo's on UFAB (not that I haven't owned/sold it VBG) - however, are you selling here - errr, taking profits ? Personally, I feel much better when I sell those highs than when I watch them reverse.... UFAB is obviously still grossly undervalued - even according to those Yahoo links (VBG) ! good luck. and don't let the internet cretins get you down - I know, I won't....(VBG) !