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Pastimes : Kosovo -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Douglas V. Fant who wrote (5993)	4/30/1999 6:40:00 AM
From: GUSTAVE JAEGER	Respond to of 17770

Thanks for this report, Douglas... Well, being in Brussels, I can tell you I'm in a ringside seat... Remember that European elections are scheduled on June 13th. So, it's clear that as we approach this deadline, all European political leaders will feel the growing heat from the Kosovo crisis. In France, for instance, the first French ''casualty'' of the Balkan war was Philippe Seguin, president of Gaullist party RPR (Rally for the Republic). He was replaced by his lieutenant Nicolas Sarkozy who's more Europe-friendly... Here in Belgium, there was a poll the other day that showed Flemish far-rightist party Vlaams Blok as the third largest party in Belgian Flanders... That's for the right side; now for the left: there's always been a traditional anti-U.S. feeling among Communists, (some) Anarchists, Greens, and other (far-)leftist crowds. Problem is all these leftist/ecologist folks have been appointed to executive/governmental posts! So, the issue is crystal-clear: so far, NATO bombings over Serbia's been a boondoggle. Why? Because public opinions can't help recalling the Gulf War: what was the outcome of Desert Storm after all? Even with a ground invasion involving 200,000 troops, Saddam's still parading around in Baghdad. And that's exactly the kind of outcome most European political leaders are looking for: a political stalemate in the Balkans. Supreme Commander Gen. W. Clark can claim there're still 2,000 targets to take care about by NATO's airforce --nobody listens to him. Because the strategic threshold is Stage III of Operation Allied Force, that is the ground invasion of Kosovo. But such a development will grant the U.S. too strong a political leverage in the after-war negotiations: there'll be U.S. soldiers all over Kosovo --probably in neighboring territories as well (think of Israel's security zone in Southern Lebanon). And, most likely, the Serbian executive will be seriously destabilized: either Milosevic will get ousted or ''suicided''. Further, the KLA will be able to impose an independent status for Kosovo, that is a Muslim stronghold in the heart of Europe. The U.S. will, once again, look like an almighty diplomacy broker who can solve a European crisis without calling France, Italy, Germany, etc. for help --except for walk-on parts! Then, how could all these petty politicals come to their respective European electorates to ask for their suffrages? How could they tell them how useful the European Parliament is or how efficient the European Commission is, when Europe's most important post-WWII crisis is entirely settled by the U.S.??? That's why they're looking for a military stalemate: as the U.S. military tire themselves out bombing Serbia, European chancelleries are preparing the next negotiation round --leveraging Russia and the UN in the process. Of course, they'll thank the U.S. for coming along to the ''party'' --these tacky Yankees are so entertaining after all! Gustave.