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To: upanddown who wrote (43514)	4/30/1999 4:19:00 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

John Clarke; Natural Gas stocks... and ''Buffetology'' ...gee; and the Street has finally discovered Nat Gas stocks - unbelieveable ! Actually John, I was buying Nat Gas stocks months ago - have a ton of EVER at $14 in my non trading account - in the drawer and long forgotten. Actually I want to be selling my Nat Gas stocks here - not buying them ! Lets see how rotation into these E&P's has done in comparison to the OSX of late. ...once again; ohhhhh yes; how silly to be taking profits from the OSX at 72-77 and ''rotating'' into E&P's . My God - the OSX is rocking - how silly of me to have been taking OSX profits starting April16th to the 19th and rotating those profits into the E&P's that I was pounding the table on months ago - as the subsector with a no-brainer risk vs. reward advantage as far as fundamentals (bottomline earnings) are concerned. They are also STILL presently better values; read - ''cheaper'' than the OSX stocks imho. But, if you just ''have'' to have your OSX stocks - I'd be sitting in RIG PGO and leveraged in FLC on runs like this - that's what I still hold in OSX-land fwiw. More importantly; the proof is in the pudding so to speak as far as how E&P' rotation has done in comparison to the OSX of late. Let the pom-pom squad keep blowin their horn - I have mine in the bank - and not just one time since Sept.... add the individual stock trading profits in FEN CLB HMAR MEXP BEXP - (these were all 40% to Triples by the way) the numerous times many of us traded RIG & CAM(RON) all winter from the mid $20's to the $30's, FGI - what 5 times from $10-12 to $14-16 etc. these were only possible by taking profits and playing the ''trading range''. The OEI's, the EVER's and too many trades that were livetime posted contrary to what SargeK, or anyone else wants to spam, or call a ''re-write'' about... longtime posters like marc c & garyB will recall EVER, OEI etc...even Robert himself - jumped on the FEN bandwagon; wonder if ole' Sarge traded HMAR in the closet (VBG) ? While the loudest of the loud, may claim that myself, or some here are ''selling too early'' - lets calmly look at the reality of the OSX for the last 8 months - THERE AINT NO SUCH THING - AS SELLING TOO EARLY when you are talking a 50% run, or these 15-20-30% near overnight moves ! - not in this enviroment - not when we have continually either been able to re-buy again cheaper after taking profits on trading gains, or being able to rotate into other equal, or superior opportunities. Look at any OSX chart since last August - 5 times you lost it all. if you held and didn't take some profits. We still aren't over OSX 77 here - so per the chart below and all the individual trades listed above - you tell me who is ahead here: the buy & holders - holding to OSX 77 here - or, the ''traders'' such as myself via all of those individual trades listed above...and more importantly and specifically this rotation into E&P's that I pounded the table on starting with the initial profit taking on our 1st pop to OSX 70+ here starting April 16th. The comparison on this chart linked below - needs to start April 16th - that is where I posted my profit taking-selling and near total rotation into the micro cap E&P's - with a peak 60% total weighting into CRK - compare these % gains from the April 16th timeline to present - with the OSX's mere flat return - still at OSX 77; - I rest my case - all the way to the bank....how the hell was I wrong dumping my OSX stocks at healthy profits and rotating into these starting April 16th ? !!! techstocks.com With CRK being a ''double'' here in 2-3 weeks with a 30-60% weighting to my entire portfolio has been very rewarding. I could care less if the OSX was at 150 here - I am very pleased with where I am and where I am going... Steadilly taking profits in CRK from $2 9/16ths to $5 here. I'll steadilly continue taking profits to my nearterm target of $7; while re-buying any substantial retracements. - I still see laggard micro cap E&P rotation ideas in BELW, PGEI - in which I have small positions building in both. Someone asked about PGEI earlier, this company has the most intriguing, and unique story in the entire sector - and no one has even touched on what ''this'' play is all about... EPEX has moved a bit here - I only caught a small position in at $5 - I'd set limit buys and snap up anything close to $5 on any retracements here. CRK anything near $4 again, RRC on anything under $3 1/2 - and even here for an initial buy. - GaryB will remember OEI - I still have a large position - bought on this rotation from OSX profits - added UPR - and have sold some, and still hold some - will add these 2 and XTO on any solid retracing here. These have all made major moves here - so I will let the ''noveau'' pom-pom crowd keep pumping them up - I don't necessarially want to be buying them here now - I want to be selling them here now !.... BELW - may be the best buy here at today's prices, but it doesn't have the upside mo-mo of CRK, or potentially RRC, or even XTO & OEI. I'm building a position here in PGEI - in since the initial blowoff and the mid $1 1/2's... I need to confirm something with this company - it has the potential to be the largest gainer in the sector from present prices if this ''something'' is what I think it is; - if it isn't what I think it is - then there are far better plays ...anyone ''know'' what the 'ole Petroglyph play is all about ? --- you'll have either deadmoney for a long, long time - or a 4-5 bagger if you know the answer (VBG)...or, more importantly - the right question... ie: ''Buffetology: Making substantial ''over-weighted'' bets is a philosophy used by many traders. Buffet for example - espouses the concept of large bets on individual companies with his quote of: ''Diversification is a hedge against ignorance'' While having all of ones eggs in just ''one'' baket is not what I am recommending. Having the guts to make ''substantial'' bets on either the incredible opportunities offered by these disproportionate one day blow off trades in stocks like CLB HMAR FEN MEXP BEXP HLX et al - were a key to far surpassing anything possible by even perfectly timing the OSX and holding. All of those trades were posted ''livetime'' during the day when they happened and I posted when I was selling as well - so critics - save your spam. I stand by the sheer common sense reality, of when we had a quadruple bottom - and traded 4 times from OSX 45 - to 72 and then had the Jan pop from the tax loss selling - rebuying - then the 50% one month pop in March - that this volatility has offered literally 5 years of normal trading opportunities. My entire point is not banging my drum - but banging the drum of the trading opportunities here ! - if EVER there is, or was, a time for trading vs. buying and holding - it has been this last 8 months. - this is beyond any sane discussion. The time to buy and hold is in those ''traditional'' 12% annual return years...and a slow steady market, with minor moves, up & down. When the extremes between the highs and lows are much closer - then there is not the risk vs. reward in trading - here we've had 5-6 runs of a 50% trading range and numerous individual stock moves of doubles, triples and many 30-40-50% near overnight moves. These spreads are gift horse opportunities for trading. I'll stick with my trading & profit taking; and making those overweighted bets on individual companies. Most importantly - it's in my pocket - those gains are cashed in - done, can't retrace - no one can take them back - they're mine, all mine....(VBG)... sorry, if I seem like sourgrapes - but getting all hot & bothered over FGI popping to $19 here is certainly good news - but, how many times have people over the last 8 months here in the Oilpatch had numerous cheering opportunities - only to see them disappear once again.... how many times has FGI given us both the thrill of victory and then the agony of defeat... selling too early ? - how can anyone sell anything here ''too early'' when we've had 5-6-7 opportunities to keep selling and buying cheaper, then reselling etc.... Just something about the sound of hearing that ca$h register ringing verus merely watching ''paper'' profits move up & down, up & down, up & down ... silly me.