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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Maarten Z who wrote (6085)	4/29/1999 3:19:00 PM
From: Rande Is	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 57584

Maarten Z, On AXNT. . .the question to ask yourself is whether or not you believe the CEO. He blames their warning of not so good financials on Y2K costs. Now why does a software company need to spend a fortune on their Y2K compliance? Don't they have some engineers that are already on salary that can handle the job? And if they are running that many systems from the 70's and early 80's then what are they thinking? Is the CEO making this up? I have no idea. And more importantly is this just covering up the real reason that revs are off and things are not going well? I don't know. The company did take an enormous haircut at the beginning of the month on that warning. . .Company has turned in 11 straight great reports. Yet Wall Street says, "what have you done for me lately?" If earnings are a disappointment, how far can the stock fall? 7? . . .then how long will it take to rebound? Another quarter? Not a bad downside risk. On the other side, if they surprise above their expected warning, the upside could be sharp and swift. . . probably working into teens. With the Melissa and CIH viruses getting so much media of late, it could be that AXNT has received some deals SINCE the CEO warning. . .and if not, there could still be a windfall in AXNT's future from such vandalism. And if it is right where it was expected, then we stay where we are for a while. . . so I would have to deduce that the slight downside risk, if you are willing to hold for a comeback. . is worth the upside potential. Understand that this is still a gamble and NOT an investment. Have not decided whether I should join party. . .not crazy about such a deep sell off. . .is that from leaks? Or just panic selling? Not sure. Best wishes. Rande Is