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Technology Stocks : Brightpoint - CELL -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Grabs who wrote (1598)	4/29/1999 6:03:00 PM
From: Brian Lempel	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1999

*CC notes* Overall restatement of Press release issues. Problems to persist to year end. 3.1 mm units. 75% digital 45% NOK 25% ERICY 15% MOT 75% rev handsets 13% accessories 12% VALS (value added and logistics services) 70% of distribution volume of expected at march press release 200 basis points lower margins than expected on handsets strong competition by weak competitors "trading dollars"...expected to let up in coming quarters. operating cash flow of 39 mm!!! Latin America back to pre-devaluation levels. UK very weak, will likely dispose of biz by June 30 unless contracts are reached for VALS. Germany weak too but improving. Brazil strong after procurement issues---strong VALS market '99 EPS estimates too high. 5-10% rev growth overall for year 20-30% top line growth in 2000 consensus 2000 EPS is OK awards cycle for VALS contracts slower than expected. SG&A rose 5mm to 27 mm....very high...(interesting) headcount up to 1725....new hirees VALS requires high number of employees SG&A will not come down in future quarters re-evaluation of all biz segments....and very strong ficus on balance sheet management. MOT taking back strong share in Asia... ATI contract will contribute significantly to 2000...my own estimates call for a contribution of $.20-.25 contribution to y2K earnings. Pipeline good for domestic VALS market going forward. ERICY may outsource certain ops???? <lengthy boring discussion of reasons for procurement issues> -------------------------------- Q looks pretty bad. Stock may move down in short term. Stock is likely dead money (songle digits) for another 6 months...however, with contracts kicking in by 2000, stock should be valued in low-mid teens. Brian

To: Grabs who wrote (1598)	4/29/1999 7:45:00 PM
From: Ken W	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 1999

Grabs, Are you completely discounting the Airtouch 3 year contract? It appears that folks focus on the -.02 which was already built in to the price at 6 or so, then, there was the "buy the rumor sell the news" deal with Airtouch, however there was not that much of a sell off on the news. So, now we focus on one paragraph and a small number, forgetting the general rule that most downside risk is built in a long time ago. Frankly, I think that at this point, CELL will become one of those great trading stocks that roll from support to resistance. Nice predictable, money making. Sure there will be the "oh ma gods" that sell in the morning. I hope they take the thing down to 5 again. That is were the roll will start.. 5 to 6, 5 to 6. I'll hold the shares I bought at 7 1/4 and within 6 months they will be absolutley free. JMO...but I've made a mint this way and will continue to do so. Lurking for the next 6 months. Ken