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Biotech / Medical : PFE (Pfizer) How high will it go? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Logain Ablar who wrote (7566)	4/29/1999 10:31:00 PM
From: BigKNY3	Respond to of 9523

A summary of the negative ammo against Big Pharma is published in this week's Business Week. Most of these problems will never come to pass. BigKNY3 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- News: Analysis & Commentary: PHARMACEUTICALS BITTER MEDICINE AHEAD FOR DRUG COMPANIES Cutthroat competition and expiring patents may cast a pall By Amy Barrett in Philadelphia, with John Carey in Washington and Steve Brull in Los Angeles 05/03/1999 Business Week Page 50 Last year, it was hard to find companies with stronger vital signs than the big drugmakers. The portfolio of 10 big U.S. and British drug stocks followed by SG Cowen Securities Corp. jumped 52% vs. a 26% rise in the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index. And it's easy to see why. With record numbers of new products hitting the market--including such blockbusters as Viagra and Lipitor--drug companies have racked up double-digit sales and earnings growth for the past three years. But investors are beginning to doubt whether drugmakers can continue to produce such robust results. So far this year, Cowen's drug-company index is down about 6% while the S&P 500 is up roughly 6%. The diagnosis? Because drugmakers are able to bring forth new products far more quickly, breakthrough drugs such as Warner-Lambert's diabetes treatment, Rezulin, face competition sooner. That leaves drugmakers less time to lock down a market and accelerates their need to spend heavily to carve out, and then defend, their franchises. PRICE-CONTROL PANIC. At the same time, patents on many major drugs will expire soon, opening the way to cheaper generic versions. Finally, Washington is talking about extending Medicare benefits to include prescription drugs--a move drugmakers fear would lead to price controls. ''The last three years have been phenomenal,'' says drug-industry analyst Hemant K. Shah of HKS & Co. ''The next three will be much rockier.'' Certainly, growth won't fall off a cliff. HSBC Securities Inc. analyst Jack Lamberton figures sales and earnings growth for the seven big U.S. drugmakers he follows will hit 6.8% and 9.4%, respectively, in 2002. But that's quite a dip from the 13.9% sales growth and 18% net income gain expected this year. One of the biggest problems is the shorter development cycles for new products. It used to take several years for rivals to trot out a me-too nostrum. In recent years that window has been closing. On Apr. 20, for example, a Food & Drug Administration panel recommended approval of Merck & Co.'s painkiller Vioxx, just three months after Monsanto Co. launched Celebrex, the first so-called COX-2 drug and a likely blockbuster. The FDA panel also recommended that Merck be able to recommend Vioxx for acute pain--something not on Celebrex' label. And if recent reports of deaths among patients taking Celebrex are indications of unknown problems with the drug, that gives an even bigger opening to Merck. Monsanto says its review of the reports shows ''no direct causality'' between Celebrex and the deaths. Regardless, ''the bite of competition is more ferocious now,'' concedes Warner-Lambert Co. President Lodewijk J.R. de Vink. On Apr. 19, Eli Lilly & Co. said sales of its onetime blockbuster, the antidepressant Prozac, were off 4% in the first quarter, owing in part to inroads made by products such as Celexa from Forest Laboratories Inc. So like other drugmakers facing new threats, Lilly is upping its marketing firepower, hiring an additional 100 sales representatives. They're part of a growing and costly army: The top 40 drugmakers now deploy nearly 59,000 reps in the U.S., up from just over 34,000 in 1994. Analysts now warn that the growing overhead may start hurting margins. Pricing is getting tougher in some categories. Celexa, at about $60 per month, costs about 20% less than Prozac. ''There's much more price competition than there had been,'' says Merck Chairman Raymond V. Gilmartin. Meanwhile, such profit-spinners as AstraZeneca PLC's ulcer drug Prilosec, Lilly's Prozac, and Merck's heart drug Vasotec will go off patent in the next several years. Many drugmakers have legal strategies to delay competitors, but cheap generic versions will eventually hit the market. Industry pros figure that could trigger a round of consolidation involving companies such as Bristol-Myers Squibb and Schering-Plough. ''There is going to be terrific short-term pressure,'' predicts Michael E. Hansen, vice-president at Boston Consulting Group Inc. The wild card is Congress. Already, Democrats like Sen. Edward Kennedy (D-Mass.) and Representative Pete Stark (D-Calif.) have introduced bills to add drug benefits to Medicare, and the Administration says it will put forth its own plan this spring. So far, the threat of price controls is small. But with uncertainty in Washington and new competitive pressures, drug companies may soon be under the weather

To: Logain Ablar who wrote (7566)	4/29/1999 11:16:00 PM
From: BigKNY3	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9523

The Peabody Report: 4/28/99 The Peabody Report is intended to foster conversation on the PFEr Board. Comments are encouraged and appreciated. Invest only after conducting your own research. Have PFun! BigKNY3 __________________________________________________________ PFE Stats (4/28/99): Early am rally attempt countered by another full scale Pharma sell off with every "Healthy 13" declining. PFE Versus the Dow- Intraday quicken.com DOW JONES: Close: 10,878 All-time High PFE - PFIZER INC Last Price: 115 15/16 at 16:25 Change: Down 2 1/16 (-1.75%) High: 119 7/8 at 9:43 Low: 114 11/16 at 13:06 Pending Peabody Valley Open: 118 Previous Close: 118 on 4/28 Volume: 6,379,800 30-Day Avg. Volume: 3,827,000 Shares Outstanding: 1,293,175,000 52-Week High: 150.12 52-Week Low: 86 Beta: 0.93 Yield: 0.70% P/E Ratio: 43.9 EPS: 2.64 _____________ The Peabody Model -Click here for a summary of the principles behind the Peabody Model. Short-Term PFE Trend: Neutral with a downward bias (4/29/99) Price momentum and segment psychology need to reverse for PFE to change direction Target Peabody Valley: A new pending Peabody Valley of 114.69 was set on 4/28/99. PFE can still move down to a target Peabody Valley of $113.39 (-2.2%) by May 3, 1999. Target Peabody Peak: If the model is wrong, the new target Peabody Peak is 130.13 (+12.2%) by 5/29/99. The Peabody Peak strike price is 123.86 (+6.8%). Predicted PFE Level: At the current record Dow level of 10,878 the predicted PFE price is 158.26..... Accordingly, PFE is 26.7% underpriced as compared to historical Dow and PFE trends. This is the highest underpricing of PFE in Da Model's history and is reflection of a major break in the positive relationship among the Dow, PFE and Big Pharma. Da Short-term PForecast (4/29/99) PFE: 115.94 Dow: 10,878: Although it doesn't feel like it, the current sell-off is not directed to PFE....all Pharmas are taking a hit. The current downturn will stop when investors realize that the Pharma sky is not falling and the pfuture is bright. For the brave long-termers, this Peak to Valley is an amazing buying opportunity. For the conservative investor, stay on the sidelines and watch for the price momentum to reverse. For the those investors losing sleep, relax.... you are invested in one of the strongest, best-managed companies in the world. Suggested PFE Buying Range: $110 to $117 (4/28/99) The Peabody Portfolio: 100 shares added @119.00 (4/28/99) The Peabody Portfolio consists of 32 PFE purchase recommendations listed on the PFEr Board since August 14, 1996. The Portfolio has purchased 4,800 PFE shares at an average price of $71.65 (only 3.5% off the subsequent PFE Valleys). # PFE purchases since 8/14/96: 32 % of purchases in the black: 91% # PFE shares purchased: 4,800 Average PFE purchase price: $71.65 Annualized return: 22.0% Current return: 61.8% # PFE purchases since 1/01/99: 5 % of purchases in the black: 20% # PFE shares purchased: 500 Average PFE purchase price: $118.75 Current return: -2.4% Date............#..........Purchase Purchased...Shares...Price 8/14/96:..... 200 ........$36.38 10/25/96:....200 .........$40.44 12/4/96:......200..........$41.69 12/12/96:.....200.........$40.50 12/16/96:.....200.........$40.44 12/31/96:....200..........$41.50 1/2/97:........200.........$40.94 1/28/97: ......200..........$42.38 2/28/97:.......200...........$45.69 3/24/97:.......200...........$44.88 3/27/97:.......200...........$42.81 3/31/97:........200..........$42.56 8/8/97:..........200..........$55.13 4/16/98:........200...........$97.00 4/27/98:........200...........$113.00 5/7/98:..........200...........$107.50 5/15/98:.........100..........$105.00 5/27/98 :........100 .........$101.75 7/06/98 :........100 .........$106.00 7/29/98 :........100 .........$110.50 8/05/98 :........100 .........$104.00 8/07/98 :........100 .........$102.63 8/11/98..........100..........$100.00 9/01/98..........100..........$97.63 10/06/98.........100..........$94.00 10/09/98.........100..........$89.00 10/14/98.........100..........$89.50 01/10/99.........100........$117.00 01/12/99.........100........$110.25 04/15/99..........100........$129.38 04/25/99..........100.........$118.13 04/28/99...........100.........$119.00 Total:............4,800.........$71.65 ______________________________________________________ Peabody Peaks & Valleys: Updated 4/28/99 Listed below is an updated summary of the Peabody Peaks and Valleys since 1/04/90. The columns include the following data: - PFE prices - % change since the previous Peabody Valley or Peak - # of days from the last Peabody Valley or Peak - # of high volume days associated with the Peabody Valley or Peak - predicted next Peabody Valley or Peak using the Model - difference between the predicted Peabody price and the actual price . ___________________________________________________ ................................................................................ Predicted .........................................% Chg... # Days..High Vol..Peabody....% Diff ...............................PFE.....Last........Last....Days ....Next Pred..Peabody/ Peak/Valley.. Date...Price...Vall/Pk....Val/Pk. W/ Date...Vall/Pk....Actual 1....Peak.....1/4/90....9.06.................................. 2....... 6.92........1.5% 2....Valley...2/26/90...6.81.....-24.8%..... 53........12......11.31.......19.0% 3....Peak.... 7/31/90...9.50......39.4%.....155.......21........7.31....... -8.7% 4....Valley...8/23/90...8.00.....-15.8%..... 23..........1.......12.61 .....-41.3% 5....Peak.....2/30/91..21.50...168.8%... 494 .........9.......18.07...... 4.9% 6....Valley...2/19/92...17.22...-19.9%......51..........8.......22.76...... 19.2% 7....Peak.....2/27/92...19.10....10.9% .......8 .........2.......15.91...... -6.4% 8...Valley....4/28/92...17.00....-11.0%......61.........3.......22.52....... 8.2% 9....Peak.....8/20/92...20.81.....22.4%....114........4........17.45 .......+0.4% 10..Valley...10/5/92....17.38....-16.5%......46.......10.......22.93.......14.7% 11..Peak.....2/14/92 ...20.00.....15.1%......70........3.......16.72........27.4% 12..Valley....2/22/93 ...13.13 ...-34.4%..... 70 .....33.......18.25 ......14.5% 13..Peak.....3/11/93 ...15.94 ....21.4%......17 . .....3.......13.08 .... -8.2% 14..Valley....3/24/93 ...14.25 ...-10.6%......13........1........19.49......3.1% 15..Peak.....6/17/93 ...18.90.....32.6%...... 85.......6.......15.73 .....13.1% 16..Valley...8/16/93 ...13.92 ....-26.4%..... 60.....13.......19.13 .....17.2% 17..Peak.....9/03/93....16.31......17.2%......18.......1.......13.41......-7.1% 18..Valley...10/04/93...14.44 ....-11.5%......31.......1.......19.70 .....11.9% 19..Peak.... 12/30/93...17.60 .....21.9%......87.......0......14.57 .......9.7% 20..Valley....3/31/94....13.29 ....-24.5%......91.......2......18.43......-18.1% 21..Peak......3/29/95....22.50.....69.4%.....363......3......18.96.......-5.8% 22..Valley.....5/15/95....20.13..... -10.6%.....47......5......25.96........0.6% 23..Peak......8/1/95......25.81......28.3%..... 78..... 5......21.93 ......-5.7% 24..Valley....9/8/95.......23.25.....-9.9%....... 38....10.....29.40 .......-12.1% 25..Peak.....12/14/95....33.44.....43.8%.......97......5.....28.77.........-4.9% 26..Valley.....1/19/96.....30.25.....-9.5%.......36....14..... 37.10.........4.9% 27..Peak.......2/13/96.....35.38....16.9%.......25.....4...... 30.50 ........-0.8% 28..Valley.....3/14/96..... 30.75....-13.1%......30.....11.....37.65.........4.0% 29..Peak.......4/3/96 ......36.19....17.7%.......20..... 2......31.23 .......-0.7% 30..Valley......5/8/96......31.44....-13.1%......35......3......38.41........-0.7% 31..Peak.......6/17/96.....38.69....23.1%.......40......3......33.47........2.0% 32..Valley......7/16/96.....32.81....-15.2%.....29......2.......39.92........-7.7% 33..Peak.....10/21/96......43.25...31.8%.......97..... 5.......37.56....... -4.9% 34..Valley....10/28/96.....39.50....-8.7%........7.......5.......47.28 ....... 3.6% 35..Peak.....11/26/96 .....45.63...15.5%......29.......4.......39.69 .......-0.1% 36..Valley....12/6/96 .......39.75...-12.9%.....10.......5.......47.56........-4.6% 37..Peak.......2/18/97......49.88...25.5%......74...... 5.......43.50.........4.8% 38..Valley..... 4/03/97......41.50...-16.8%.....44.....15.......49.48........30.9% 39..Peak.......7/07/97.......64.75.. 56.0%......95 ....18.....55.13 .........-7.4% 40...Valley....8/18/97........51.06...-21.1%.....42 ...11.....66.88.........10.1% 41...Peak....10/24/97.......73.63 ...44.2%......67.....3 ....62.00...........4.8% 42...Valley...10/27/97.......65.00 ...-11.7% .....4.....2.....85.50.........-12.1% 43...Peak....10/30/97.......74.88.....15.2% .....2..... 3.....66.00.........+0.5% 44...Valley...11/13/97.......66.31....-11.3%....14.... 3.....83.00.........-3.6% 45...Peak....12/04/97.......80.00.....20.6%....21.....2......69.13.......+0.6% 46...Valley...12/19/97.......69.56....-13.0%....15.....1......87.13........+9.0% 47...Peak......1/05/98.......79.94.....14.9% ....17....1......69.38 ....... -2.4% 48...Valley... 1/12/98...... 71.06.....-11.1% .... 7....3 .....87.00........ -4.9% 49...Peak..... 2/27/98...... 91.44.......28.7% ...46 ...1 ....79.87 ....... -5.1% 50...Valley....3/06/98.......84.13.........-8.0% .... 7 ...3....103.71.......+0.0% 51....Peak.....4/06/98 ....103.75........23.3%...31...13.....91.86 ........-3.6% 52...Valley.... 4/16/98......95.31........ -8.1%....10 ....1...116.50 ........-4.3% 53...Peak......4/21/98.....121.75.........27.7%.....5 ....8...109.12..........4.5% 54...Valley....5/17/98 .....104.75........-14.0% ...26 ..2....124.00.......+8.6% 55....Peak ....5/20/98 .....114.19.........9.0%......3 ...4 ....101.10.......+0.8% 56 ...Valley.. 6/01/98......100.38........-12.1%....12...5 ....119.75.......+4.2% 57....Peak.... 6/18/98 ....114.94..........14.5%....17...1 ...102.00........-3.4% 58....Valley.. 7/06/98 .....105.63......... -8.1% ...18 ..4.....126.59.......+5.0% 59....Peak ...7/14/98......120.56..........14.1% .....8 ..4....107.00........+9.2% 60... Valley... 8/11/98......98.00.........-18.7%.....28...1.....117.19.......+7.6% 61....Peak...8/19/98.......108.94..........10.6% .....8 ..1.......97.06........+5.5% 62....Valley.. 9/01/98 ..... 92.00......... -15.5% ...13 ..6....109.79.......+7.6% 63....Peak ...9/03/98......102.06..........10.9% ......2....5.....90.32........-3.4% 64... Valley.. 9/04/98......93.50...........-8.4%........1... 5...110.79.......+6.7% 65....Peak.....9/15/98.....103.88........+11.1%.....11...0.... 92.25.......-2.9% 66....Valley....9/21/98......95.00.........-8.5%.........6...0....110.00.....+0.7% 67....Peak.....9/28/98.....109.19........+14.9%...... 7...2......96.93.....+12.7% 68....Valley...10/08/98......86.00........-21.3%.....10...5......101.40.....+4.6% 69....Peak.....10/12/98.... 96.94........+12.7%.......4...0.... 85.30......-3.6% 70....Valley...10/14/98......88.50.........-8.7%........2...2....103.36.......-19.8% 71....Peak....12/31/98 ... 128.94......+45.7%.......78...1.....114.00.......+4.1% 72....Valley...1/12/99......109.56........-15.0%.....12...4.....127.49........-5.3% 73....Peak....2/02/99 ... 134.63.......+22.9%......21...5.....118.66.......-5.1% 74....Valley...2/09/99......125.00........-7.1%.........7.....0....139.84........-3.2% 75....Peak.....3/23/99 ... 144.50.........+15.6%....42....2.....128.27.......-4.9% 76....Valley...3/26/99.....134.88.........-6.7%........3....0.......157.25.......+4.7% 77....Peak.....4/12/99... 150.13.......+11.3%.......17....2.....131.31.......+15.0% 78....Valley...4/19/99.....115.88........-12.8%........4....4....134.89......+3.7% 79....Peak.....4/23/99... 130.13.......+12.3%.......4....3.......113.39.....-1.1% 80....Valley...4/19/99.....114.69.......-11.9%........6....5.... ........Pending ______________________________________________ Average..Peak (1999) N=4..............+15.5%.....21.............3 Average..Peak (1998) N=13............+18.3%.....18 ............3 Average..Peak (1997) N= 5.............+32.3%.....52.............7 Average..Peak (90-99) N=40...........+27.1%.....61 ............4 Average..Valley (1999) N= 5 .......... -12.7%......7 .............3 Average..Valley (1998) N=12 ......... -12.1%.....12 .............3 Average.. Valley (1997) N= 5...........-14.2%.....10 .............2 Average..Valley (90-99) N=40 .........-14.2%.....28 .............6 The Peabody 1999 Archives 4/25/99 PFE@127: "Neutral with an upward bias...expect a run at 130." 4/20/99 PFE@118: "This is a major PFE buying opportunity....that due to the rapid decline usually freezes most investors amd PFErs from taking action." 4/18/99 PFE@127 1/16 "Moving higher from the Peabody Valley...The Model is indicating a major buy signal for PFE....Accordingly, Mr. Peabody will be adding 100 shares by the end of Tuesday's close. 4/15/99 PFE@130 "Moving higher from the Peabody Valley...After another bout of profit-taking in the am, PFE will rebound strongly on Friday..." 4/14/99 PFE@ 144 5/8 "Neutral with an upward bias...Be very alert!! PFE 1 Qt earnings could trigger a strong move up or down..If the move is down to the 140 level, another PFE buy opportunity will be upon us." 4/10/99 PFE@146 "Neutral with an upward bias...Particularly exciting week with many forces at play...Expect traditional profit-taking down to 140 before the run at 150..." www3.techstocks.com 3/29/99 PFE@141: "Headed higher to an all-time high (144 1/2) and more.....PFE will propel pass 150 in April". Message 8595595 3/28/99 PFE@135: " A PFE buying opportunity will surface this week....The basic PFE PFUNdamentals have never been stronger. In July, you will be wondering why you did not buy PFE at pre-adjusted split levels of 43-45 (129 to 135)." Message 8569605 3/23/99 PFE@139.25: "PFE will reverse and move lower". www3.techstocks.com 3/16/99 PFE@142.00: "PFE will reverse and move lower". www3.techstocks.com 3/11/99 PFE@140.68: "PFE will reverse and move lower". www3.techstocks.com 3/08/99 PFE@139.56: "PFE will reverse and move lower..long-term PFE is headed to the long-awaited $150 level." www3.techstocks.com 3/07/99 PFE@136.56: "PFE will now battle @140..expect profit-taking at all-time highs and even a possible drop back to the high 120s." www3.techstocks.com 2/28/99 PFE@131.94: "Expect a March trading range of 125 to 142". www3.techstocks.com 2/23/99 PFE@ 133.88: "PFE moving higher to $140". www3.techstocks.com 2/14/99 PFE@130.13: "Short-term trend "Neutral"...PFE could sink to another buying opportunity or jump to an all-time high". www3.techstocks.com 2/09/99 PFE@125.25:" Be very alert for a buying opportunity this week." www3.techstocks.com 2/02/99 PFE@ 132.69: "PFE will reverse and move lower....a final attempt @135 before the Valley ride begins". www3.techstocks.com 1/31/99 PFE@128.88 :" Expect a February trading range of 119 to 135+". (Actual: 125 to 135) www3.techstocks.com 1/28/99 PFE@127.56: "PFE has momentum and will break an all-time high and possibly the 130 level...but profit-taking will begin". www3.techstocks.com 1/27/99 PFE@121.94: "3-4-1 and have PFun!...Thursday is the key day." www3.techstocks.com 1/26/99 PFE@120.13: "PFE moving higher...positive trend will gain momentum." www3.techstocks.com 1/24/99 PFE@115.75: "Near term direction unclear...positive PFE news to be announced" www3.techstocks.com 1/10/99 PFE@122.25: "After 2 months, the Model has reversed and shows a positive upward trend....A PFE split announcement is guaranteed later this month with a 75% probability of a historic 3-1." www3.techstocks.com The PFE 1999 Split: All you need to know -At the 4/22/99 Annual Meeting, shareholders officially authorized increasing the number of outstanding shares to allow a 3-1 split and a future 2-1 split. -Following the meeting, the PFE Board of Directors met and formally approved the 3-1 split and set June 30, 1999 as its effective date. -A split does not increase the value of PFE (100 shares@150 will be converted to 300shares@50). However, historically it certainly has not hurt the PFE price . Note PFE's growth during the split years: Year Ending..... Dow ........PFE......% Chg . Date................ Index.......Price.....Prior Year....Comments 12/31/87...........1,896........5.82......-25.0%....... Bear market/market crash 12/30/88...........2,169........7.25.......24.7% 12/29/89........... 2,753.......8.69......19.9% 12/31/90............2,634.......10.10.....16.2% 12/31/91............3,168.......21.00.......108.0%.....2-1 split (2/91) 12/31/92.......... 3,301.......18.13......-13.7%......Clinton elected president 12/31/93......... ..3,754........17.25.......-4.8%.......Healthcare reform pending 12/30/94......... ..3,844........19.32.......12.0% 12/29/95............5,177........31.50.......63.1% ......2-1 split (6/95) 12/30/96............6,448........41.50.......31.7% 12/31/97............7,908........74.56.......79.7% ......2-1 split (6/30/97)/Lipitor launched 12/31/98......... ..9,181........125.00......67.6%......Viagra approved (3/27/98) 04/28/99............10,878.......115.94...... -7.3%.....Celebrex launched (1/19/99)