To: SemiBull who wrote (13267 ) 5/2/1999 1:21:00 PM From: Rusty Johnson Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 14631
Barron's Cover Story Party On! America's portfolio managers grow more bullish on stocks and interest rates In numerous conversations, however, it's apparent that poll respondents see tremendously tempting values in the market's smaller-fry. "Small stocks today are priced at the largest discount ever to larger issues ," explains Petherick. He notes that the stocks in Loomis Sayles' small-cap portfolios trade at an average of 14 times earnings, while earnings at those companies are growing by 15% a year. Compare that with Coca-Cola, where earnings are growing at an annual rate of 15%, yet the stock trades at 40 times those earnings, Petherick grouses. ... Generally speaking, managers have been attracted to particular stocks and sectors by rosy profit forecasts, while concerns about overly lofty stock prices have determined most of their pans. A roaring bull market, however, has confused the difference between the two, particularly in the technology sector, where profits and P/Es both are subject to constant and wrenching change. Just consider the current poll, in which the managers, as usual, were asked to vote for the two industry groups most likely to lead the market over the next 12 months, and the two they consider most overvalued. Technology won on both counts: 119 managers deemed the tech-sector stocks the market's most attractive, while 95, including some of the aforementioned pros, considered certain technology groups the most overvalued. Within the technology sector, however, at least one distinction emerged. The Big Money pros are decidedly fond of telecommunications issues such as AT&T, MCI WorldCom, Cisco Systems and Tellabs, which they consider the "backbone" of the Internet. As Alan Hoffman, a senior portfolio manager at Value Line, observes: "Telecom is a very powerful theme in the market, no matter what catchword you use. Call it bandwidth or connectivity, the need for [information conduits] translates into a need for more and more telecommunications services. That seems a slam-dunk to me." IFMX is well positioned for more telecom database wins. Maybe someday smaller caps will be back in favor. Best of luck.