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Technology Stocks : George Gilder - Forbes ASAP -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Morgan Drake who wrote (1384)	4/29/1999 11:03:00 PM
From: JMD	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5853

Well Morgan that's certainly the $64 (and then some) question, and sadly I don't have a snappy answer just yet. My guess is that the regional cartel you hinted at won't work in cyberspace: the net is just a killer of fixed boundaries. Furthermore, your question of how are the telcos gonna make any dough once their monopolies are busted is exactly why I'm scared to own all these guys slinging fiber: I don't see how in the hell they're going to make money! Look at the Big Three (ABC CBS NBC): an "unassailable" oligarchy if ever there was one, until, whoops, their vicelike grip on scarce spectrum got sidestepped by the cable boys--can you spell constant, grinding, loss of market share? They ain't dead but they're bleeding and rumors are the AOL has been thinking about tossing CBS into their backroom. Whoda thunk it? Best, Mike

To: Morgan Drake who wrote (1384)	4/29/1999 11:13:00 PM
From: zebraspot	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5853

Speaking of installation backlogs, would George (or anyone) care to comment on the outlook for telecommunication infrastructure/construction companies - or know of any particularly good plays? John Malone is rumored to be getting into the construction end of the business(via the TSAT shell). MasTec mastec.com seems to be one. Thanks.

To: Morgan Drake who wrote (1384)	5/2/1999 2:54:00 AM
From: wonk	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5853

Morgan: Now I don't think that this is going to happen in telecom. So there is going to have to be something that we don't presently comprehend that will stabilize the player environment into a dozen or so companies each of which does make a lot of money. Actually, IMO, history is repeating itself. In the beginning we had Bell and only Bell, after the patent fights were won. When the original patent come off, there was an explosion of new telephone companies. Eventually they were driven out or absorbed, leaving Bell standing alone once again. After divestiture, the monopoly structure remained in local, but there was a blizzard of new entrants and competition in LD. What's left, 3 majors and lots of little players which cannot affect the course of the industry. It will happen again. Qwest, L3 and Williams are all being built for buyout. To whom, the still standing RBOCs after they consolidate and after the regulatory prohibitions against LD go away (SBC, BA, and BS). Similarly with the major fixed wireless companies, (Winstar, Teligent and Nextlink), they'll go to the LDs (T, WCOM and FON) or an intl consortium. In international, ATT & BT are aligned and have just taken a stake in Japan Telecom (only a question of time for them all to become confortable), Sprint, France & Deutche Telecom (and now Telecom Italia) will probably eventually get together. The major international still looking for a dance partner (and the most coveted) is NTT. The CLECS will be absorbed piecemeal probably by combinations of RBOCS (entering each others territories), WCOM (filing in the gaps in its footprint) and Sprint. AT&T is doing local by buying up the cable industry. The SATCOs and a company like Global Crossing are wild cards. Except for Vodaphone/Airtouch and Nextel there are very few independent mobile wireless companies which can be considered big enough players to be strategic to the companies already mentioned. I would wager you'll see 6-9 telecom companies in ten years with (taking a wild ass guess) 90% of the global revenues. (depends a lot on China) FWIW ww