To: George Schulte who wrote (121302 ) 4/29/1999 10:42:00 PM From: jbn3 Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 176387
re what is your opinion on Dells earnings in May It seems not to be not good when a company meets the # they seem to get beaten up any way like Amazon today George, I personally think that DELL's earnings will be excellent when they report on the 19th. Why? a) According to the IDC reports, DELL gained significant market share and increased units sold. IDC data also show GTW and HWP with nice gains, and their reports which we have already seen, corroborated that. b) IBM had an extremely good quarter, especially their hardware section. I believe that some part of that was due to the agreement with DELL. c) DELL began shipping units with a LINUX OS this quarter, whereas heretofore they had been exclusively MSFT. That opens the sales door of many corporations who use LINUX systems. d) DELL's new server production facility, Parmer North, just went on line last fall, and should provide increased sales this quarter. e) I *think* that DELL began shipping PIII systems this quarter. f) DELL's management was confident, and assured the analyst community that they would meet expectations two weeks ago. Furthermore, like any good management, they tend to make very conservative forward-looking statements. In the 3 1/2 years I've been following DELL, management has consistently understated growth prospects. g) I think that a major cause of CPQ's affliction was carcinoma DELLus... and that we will find that DELL gobbled CPQ marketshare. h) The analysts keep telling us that the economy is robust. I perceive a direct correlation between robust economy and robust DELL. i) The analysts are telling us that the economic picture world-wide is improving, which also bodes well for DELL. I would rather we didn't compare DELL with AMZN. One has impressive earnings growth, the other has impressive loss growth (and may never have any earnings). DELL is extremely focused and has a transparent financial report; AMZN is divergent with acquisitions which are convenient for obscuring true financial data. AMZN's drop was due to a number of negative factors: increased losses and lengthier outlook for greater losses; a less than satisfactory conference call; replacement of the CFO, etc. With increased sales, DELL has increased earnings while AMZN has increased losses. JMHO, 3.