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Biotech / Medical : Sepracor-Looks very promising -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Metcalf who wrote (2571)	4/30/1999 1:28:00 AM
From: David Howe	Respond to of 10280

The annual report points out that Pfizer's Norvasc had 1998 sales of $2.7 billion. That's a huge number that I had dramatically underestimated prior to reading the report. What's the board's opinion of the potential for SEPR's Norvasc ICE that may hit the market in 2007? My earnings model has been adjusted to reflect this and several other sales figures that were made available in the annual report. The results were shocking for 2006 through 2009 earnings. The model now has 2009 earnings estimated at $49 per share. I've spent quite a bit of time adjusting the model based on information gleaned from the 10k and the annual report. I've also changed the format of the model to Excel from Word. This may make the model more difficult to post, but it is much easier to handle revisions since the entire model adjusts with any one change. A new potential product was listed in the annual report; Nefazodone metabolite. This is the Serzone ICE with 1998 parent drug sales of $230 million. This was added to the model. I've also taken steps to make the near term (2003) earnings estimates more conservative. This was accomplished by deleting several of the products scheduled for 2002 and 2003 launch from the 2003 earnings estimates. This reduced my estimated 2003 earnings to $12.64 per share. If anyone wants a copy of the updated earnings model I can email it to you. Contact me at rupeh@aol.com Dave