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Biotech / Medical : Zonagen (zona) - good buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bruce Rosen who wrote (6449)	4/30/1999 1:59:00 AM
From: BDR	Respond to of 7041

<<I'm a little puzzled by your post.>> I was making a joke. I thought it was funny. Linda thought it was funny. Somehow I knew longs would not think it was funny and I was right. << When I summarized my hypothesis in Post #6409, you replied in Post # 6411 that mine was a reasonable view of the facts... Not exactly. You are implying, I believe, that I accepted to some degree your explanation of events in Mexico. What I said was: "The scenario you present may be reasonable but, in the absence of any evidence to support it, it is just as much speculation as anything offered by the shorts." There are no facts to support the hypothesis that the whole Mexican endeavor was a market research exercise. The only facts are that there were no sales reported after the drug was approved and some product apparently shipped. Why? I haven't a clue. It is a baffling business plan. <<I hope you are not basing your investment decisions on such faulty logic.>> May you follow your own advice. Good luck.

To: Bruce Rosen who wrote (6449)	4/30/1999 5:56:00 AM
From: Linda Kaplan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 7041

Bruce: Schering put a LOT of Vasomax into the Mexico pipeline. You can see that by the original royaly figure. They stuffed the pipeline. How can you say that most pharmacies didn't carry it? They did carry it. They just haven't sold it. Why would Schering go to the trouble to secure approval in Mexico, sell to all those pharmacies in Mexico, and then not do any PR? We simply don't know whether they did PR at all, since we've not been there and don't read the Mexican magazines and watch Mexican TV. We don't know they did no PR. We know they obtained approval, convinced a lot of pharmacies to buy and then that there were no sales to pharmacies after the initial quarter. There's no evidence this was some sort of weird test by Schering to determine if people would buy without any advertising. We simply know that Vasomax failed in Mexico. Vasomax failed in Mexico. I consider that an important indicator of what will happen if Vasomax is approved in the US. That's why I think that after an initial quarter of sales, the stock will plummet. I just don't think there'll be sales in the US after the first quarter, either. Linda