Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: donald sew who wrote (12480)	4/30/1999 9:48:00 AM
From: Daniel Joo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Interest rates are back up. Asian recovery will add pressure to depressed commodity prices. Oil has held and may be rising from current levels. GDP rising 4.5% higher than the 3.5% forecasted. Dan

To: donald sew who wrote (12480)	4/30/1999 10:32:00 AM
From: StockOperator	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Whether the report is good or not, it is getting obvious that it is likely for the DOW to get to 11,000 or even higher, but at the expense of other sectors. Now if all the indexes were to move up at the same time and set new highs, I may have to concede my short-term bearishness, but that hasn't happened yet Don, I am sure many people feel the same way. But that was the exact point I was attempting to address in my post from yesterday. From our October bottom the indexes have all pretty much done their own things ACCORDING to their own time-tables. They have not marched in lock step since the summer of 98. But yet we have not had a market collapse. As a matter of fact we have had the exact opposite - with some of the avgs. making huge advances. That's why I made the point yesterday that as long as we have these divergences on the indexes: the DOW 1100 pts into a major breakout,,,the NAZ attempting to break a three month consolidation in April,,,the trannies only now challenging their old highs set last year,,,the RUT beginning to break but STILL 60 pts away from the highs set last year - imo, these divergences will continue to muddy the landscape. That is why I have tried to pay attention to price and trend only. As long as their trends are not violated I have to stay in the game. When they are - the game changes and I just change directions. Now granted I say that with respect to my overall market calls. The price action in AMZN this week has said that stocks should be traded independent of the overall market direction. With respect to your point regarding prices since Mid-April. You and I have discussed this before. I just don't know how much relevance I want to place on only two week's worth of data in light of the move seen the first two weeks of the month. Could this last two week's represent a topping pattern? Perhaps. My work tells me to at least be cautious here. Many charts have experienced significant damage lately. I would also like to add that if prices do correct at these levels I would only view that as a possible retracement of the move already seen this month. After today's move the DOW will have moved over 1100 pts this month. A severe retracement would take back roughly 66% of that gain. Good luck trading. SO