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To: limtex who wrote (4328)	4/30/1999 11:03:00 AM
From: Jeff Vayda	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29987

Limtex: your point is valid: Most of the people on this planet who don't have a phone can't afford 2c per minute never mind $2 pr minute. But most of the people are not able to buy a Jag convertible either. Jag manages to make a profit for Ford because there are enough people who want a Jag and can afford to buy one. We have to take the service providers at their word. (I do that by looking at were they put their money)They may be just throwing a couple of bucks around in order to cover all the bases, (seems like good business sense to me) or they just might have come to the conclusion that there is a market.(In-house market studies and a very in-depth knowledge of calling patterns of their customers) Bunches of very smart people made these companies what they are today. Could they be wrong? Sure, but the odds (and my money) are with those who have shown ability in the past. Hey it is Friday, have a beer and enjoy the weekend. :-) Jeff Vayda

To: limtex who wrote (4328)	4/30/1999 11:24:00 AM
From: John Stichnoth	Respond to of 29987

I haven't been following the thread for a year, so I don't know what has been said here. All of the estimates I've ssen from the company and the SP's have been in the $1.50 to $2.00 range. Funny thing about marketing is that you don't care about the people who don't buy. You only care about those who do buy. (That's why spam is so popular. it doesn't matter if you piss off 99 people out of 100, as long as that last person buys.) 1. I don't care about the 3 billion people on earth who have never made a phone call. That's not the market G* is addressing. Their own estimates don't say that the potential "addressable" market is that high. They say it is 30-40 million--or one percent of that. 2. Yes, most Americans are careful about costs (although not that careful). I was using the farmer as an example only, of course. He is a tiny subset of the addressable market. But to continue with him: That farmer typically has a setup now that is costing him that much, directly and indirectly, but which is much less convenient. It might be two-way radio. (I took my example from a movie from years ago, where someone got hurt, and someone else got on the radio to his wife, "Quick get Dr. Welby!") The radio wears out, and there is a real cost to having someone stay near the radio on the other end. The point being, that for this farmer there is utility in having convenient access to the "network". Utility means he will be willing to pay something for it. And don't forget that today's farmer is a businessman. America's farmer has absolutely shown a willingness to invest for the future. Today's tractors are equipped with GPS. John Deere is continuing to invest in R&D to improve its equipment, because its customers are discerning buyers. And America's farms today are huge (as are farms in Argentina and Australia). It is not a stretch at all to foresee Deere offering global satellite phones on their tractors. 3. You made my point. You are probably very well equipped with telephones and modems, etc., but you were sitting there having to pay $6 per minute to make a call. You were willing to pay it! Are there other situations where people are willing to pay the tariff to make calls? Sure. (Think of all the calls made on these rip-off pay phones for two dollars for a local call!) Are there people who can foresee that they will be in situations when they will be out of cellular range? Of course! I think the point that I'm getting to is that the danger is not the per minute charge. It's the $1,000 up-front charge for the handset, especially since it's noticeably bulkier than today's standard cellular phones. One possibility, of course, is that people will see them as the Hummer-equivalent. While of no practical value to great numbers of people, they will become known as the more expensive alternative, and will become the status-symbol purchase of Y2000. Hope not, because those people won't fill up the satellites' minutes.

To: limtex who wrote (4328)	4/30/1999 5:52:00 PM
From: Dragonfly	Respond to of 29987

1. Most of the people on this planet who don't have a phone can't afford 2c per minute never mind $2 pr minute. You're thinking like a first worlder. This strategy has been shown to work by investors who put phones in villages at high costs in rural india and neighboring countries. The customers only use the phone every once and awhile when its worth the high cost. The agregate of all the people in the community is a fair amount of use. So the fixed telephony part of the G* plan is supported by real world experience. Dragonfly