Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Pastimes : The Naked Truth - Big Kahuna a Myth -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: accountclosed who wrote (37608)	4/30/1999 12:56:00 PM
From: Cynic 2005	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 86076

AR, I am talking "sentiment" mostly from the view point of the SI posters. I guess you are right about SIers not really controling the market sentiment. But given the fact that there are some real-heavy hitters here, it is as good a proxy as any for the market. If you looked at SI from May-Aug 97, you could have seen very few bears and it turned out they were right for most part of that time. When things turned in Sept 97, several bulls who cashed early and bought the dip were back with venegance by 2nd week of Oct. They kept on ignoring Hong Kong as non-event, as it turned out it is not. The bullish sentiment was much more pronounced going in to April 98 highs, followed by a 10% pull back by June. And then the dip buyers were back with full force by mid July, again ignoring Russia this time. Then came a bolt from the blue. Now, in 1999 we have had even stronger bull-leg which devastated the bears. Then we have a stealth retreat in Feb-March, which reinforced the bulls again. Me thinks this time they are partying 'cause there is no financial meltdown elsewhere in the world. What about the war? Isn't it getting a little tense? Is this the time to be buying DUNG at 120 PE? DOW at 40 PE and S&P at 42 PE? The cycles are like this: 1. July-Aug 96 (6 weeks) bear dominance was followed by Aug 96 - Feb 97 (6 months) bull leg. 2. Feb-March 97 (6 weeks) Bear dominance was followed 6 months (through mid Oct 97) of surge and consolidation 3. Then Oct 97-mid Jan 98 (3 1/2 months) Bear dominance was followed by 6 months (including a 10% pull back in June) bull party though late July. 4. July 98-Oct 98 (2 1/2 months) gut wrenching decline was followed by another 6 month party (though end of April) From phase 1 thorough phase 4, bulls only got stronger as the market got weaker. So, this time, I am allowing for a "stronger" bullish pulse than last 3 declines. Even so, the bearish pulse is almost non-existent this time, when compared to the other 3 times. All through the 90's, (except after the Gulf War) no single bull-leg lasted for more than 6 months - it is especially true from mid 93. Now we are at the end of 6 months party. The lack of bears should make things look worse this time. IMO, BWTFDIK?