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Technology Stocks : Lucent Technologies (LU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Phoenix who wrote (7644)	4/30/1999 1:33:00 PM
From: Mr.Fun	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 21876

Gary, Some thoughts: 1. The 7R/E packet driver has its own packet-based switching fabric (I think ATM, but I'm checking on it). The module has both line-side and trunk side interfaces, so if a call comes in on the 7R/E part of the switch and is destined for an IP trunk, it does not ever cross the TDM backplane. 2. ILECS,PTTs, IXCs and even CLECs have significant investments in class 5 central offices - over a trillion dollars worldwide. They are not going to pull these switches out under anyone's scenario - for the next 30 years or more the vast majority of lines coming into a telephone company will be copper POTs, and must be terminated in some sort of line card. What possible advantage would there be to pull out all these CO based line terminations? 3. My impression is that Cisco's solution, which hasn't been aired in full in public, now focuses on the tandem/LD switch market (which is a tenth the size of the class 5 market) where the switch out could be more easily justified. In local, the only Cisco approach I am aware of is DLC bypass - via FIBEX most likely - which is still a labratory product. Please fill in details if you can. 3. In the 7R/E architecture, line-side circuit terminations, circuit-based trunking, packet service terminations and packet trunking can all be managed under the same system with common, consistent feature sets - a huge advantage to anyone trying to make a transition. It's all about differentiated services, and 7R/E has raised the bar in that regard. I would argue that LOCAL service competitors that choose this approach will be in a much better competitive position than those that might try a flash cut to an entirely new architecture if and when it finally becomes available. 4. In any case, LU has a great product called the PathStar, which is designed for smaller operations, like xDSL specialists or shared tenant services, that is entirely packet and self-contained. I urge you to go to LU's web site and really check it out. AFAIK it is the most advanced stand-alone service provision platform out there. BTW Gary, I believe you will be richly rewarded for your investment in this company. Leadership in wireless, optical equipment, optical fiber, communications software and soon ATM/remote access. A microelectronics business growing more than 20% on an annualized basis - including the only really competitive opto-electronics rival to JDS/Uniphase. Overall revenue growth is accelerating, gross margins expanding, expenses declining - meaning EPS momentum in spades. As I related on the Cisco board - I believe EPS momentum is going to mean something this year. Alot of buy-siders who are wrapped around the axle vis a vis accounts receivable DSOs are going to be really sorry.