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Strategies & Market Trends : REITS - Buying 1 - 2 weeks before going ex-dividend -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: gregor who wrote (1325)	5/2/1999 10:40:00 PM
From: Richard Barron	Respond to of 2561

gregor, I agree that the action in REITs was great on Friday!!! I show 320 as the last line of resistance on the ^RMS until 350. It hit 320.24-320.62 for highs on 8/18-8/20/98 and 320.09-320.29 again on 9/23&9/24/98. The resistance should be minor at 350 and 355 with the old highs in the 365-370 showing major resistance. I'm not sure REITs will run that far short term until the healthcare and retail sectors heal some more. Due to the strength of the transports, the hotels will likely show some strength, but most won't be able to make new highs as the effects of overbuilding have slowed FFO growth on most of the low service hotels, and even some like FCH & LHO. MT, PAH, SSI, ENN, KPA, and BOY have all showed stalled FFO growth recently in the hospitality sector. Still, many of the hotels REITs are up 40-60% from their lows. MHX is the strongest recently having rebounded from 14 5/16 on 9/14/98 to 23 on Friday. When REITs ran last time, HOT, PAH, and MT along with many hotels REITs were among the strongest of the REITs. So.... unless new leadership emerges, it will take a while for the REITs to run that far. BXP hit a new high last week and along with AIV and KIM the only REITs that I am aware of that have hit new highs so far this year. Richard