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To: Bonnie Bear who wrote (37721)	4/30/1999 4:33:00 PM
From: Defrocked	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 86076

Recent commodity price movements and real GDP data argue loudly against Yardini's forecasts without some calamitous Y2K event. One cannot ignore how strong the underlying economy is running in the US. Negative GDP growth would be met by substantial Fed easing as the events needed for such conditions, given current levels, imply worldwide deflation. Even I would borrow a ton at 3% or lower to pick up appropriately devalued assets if they existed. I believe GS(AJC) uses current and forecasted yield curves in her model, not Yardeni's numbers. (I also believe they factor in their upcoming equity sale and existing merchant banking inventories when assessing risks.<g> )