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Technology Stocks : Lam Research (LRCX, NASDAQ): To the Insiders -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Duker who wrote (2805)	5/1/1999 12:43:00 PM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5867

taxes will be lower since there are some losses to carry forward. still, i LOVE the results!

To: Duker who wrote (2805)	5/3/1999 1:53:00 PM
From: FLSTF97	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5867

70% GM on Teres? May I ask where you got these GM numbers? That would indeed something special. Of course when one sees how much Lam charges for the cleaners, maybe they are getting that already on those units. Is there any info about a Teres actually being bought by anyone? The rumor I heard is that the one in Japan got sent back.

To: Duker who wrote (2805)	5/7/1999 1:31:00 PM
From: Duker	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5867

Using more realistic TERES numbers ... a special thanks to FLSTF97 for questioning my assumptions ... and forcing me to check on the number with another source ... Here is a product with 50%-ish gross margins at volume (this is a change based upon a conversation with a friend of mine who thought that 70 was nuts ... which it is ... looking back, I agree with him ...) ... assuming an ASP between $2.3 and $2.5mm (room for aggressive pricing at the outset) and a "typical" order in the 20 unit range ... Herein lies the big swing as we model out the "peak, fully-taxed EPS." If you can get (at some point FY2001 .... FY2005???) to $200mm in TERES on $1.2bn in sales (let me keep dreaming the dream!) ... assume GM on TERES is 50% (with some price competition at current levels ... but the margin has the ability to ramp up to 50% ...) and the margins on the rest of the business are 45% (on $1bn of etch with reasonable pricing) that gets you to just about 45.8% corporate gross margins margins. That would be nice. For the sake of argument ... Remember ... these are CY2000 numbers .... they could just as easily be in CY2001 or later: $1,200mm x 45.8% Gross Margin = $549.6mm Gross Profit Op Expenses Up 9% from last Q's run rate: ($300.5mm) Operating Income: $249.1mm Convert the Convert: Adds shares ... zeroes out Interest Expense ... assume remaining cash earns no interest ... I just do not feel like arguing about the structure of the B/S during the recovery ... Tax @ 33% (some R&D credits): $166.9mm After Tax Round Up Common and Equivalents: 45mm EPS: $3.71 Hmmm. I would think that there are portions of the analysis where I was aggressive and portions where I was conservative ... I think that is a pretty reasonable number to look at ... 15 x's peak gets you to $56 (up 70% from here) ... 20 x's peak $74 (up 124% from here) ... 10 x's peak $37 (up 12% from here) ... 8 x's peak $30 (down* 9% from here)* ... I would hope the latter two scenarios would not apply!!! ...though some would argue that they should!!! Now, any of these numbers and assumptions could be off ... as they were in my last permutation, unfortunately. Still, I am optimistic that we will see a $3.00 number ... and potentially a $4.00 number ... You supply the multiple and review the assumptions ... --Duker