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Technology Stocks : Compaq -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Alfredo Nova who wrote (60212)4/30/1999 8:18:00 PM
From: rupert1  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 97611
 
Alfredo: I don't know whether I have seen the "excellent bearish report" by Milunovich to which you referred. I have seen one by him recently and have seen him interviewed a few times and have followed his opinion.

I know nothing about his background, but I would be very surprised to discover that he has ever worked in a high tech company of any kind, let alone held a position of responsibility for forecasting, planning, marketing, production or finance. He has been bearish on CPQ since he took over from Lucy, at Merrill Lynch. He was bearish when it went from $23 to $38 and from $23 to $51. If you followed his advice you would have lost out on those big rises.

He has one big idea, namely, that the merger with DEC is more than CPQ can handle. He has recently added a subsidiary idea to that first big idea - that the sacking of EP will hurt sales and assist HWP and DELL and IBM. I have never seen from him any reasoned support for these ideas or any demonstration that he has a working knowledge of the industry or the company. Although he has been wrong for most of last year about the direction of the share price, he was only about 80% wrong in his estimates for the 1Q (apparantly he did not get the dope that was fed to Kumar, who was only 25% wrong).

He may now, at last be right about CPQ, but until he can demonstrate why, his opinion is of no greater worth than that of any of the posters on this or the Yahoo board. (Yes, I know his opinion is more influential, but that, in and of itself, does not make it sound).