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Strategies & Market Trends : Precious Metals mutual funds (gold, silver, PGMs) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dan P who wrote (362)	5/2/1999 3:10:00 PM
From: Larry S.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 972

Dan, et al, Thank you, Dan, for your analysis of the trend in gold funds, gold stocks and gold itself. The GMI/Gold ratio is also suggesting a trend reversal. However, while I'm not a strong Elliott wave believer, Auger's comment this week that we are at or near an intermediate top worries me. However, he suggests a strong rally into the Fall after a late June low. Barron's GMI was 377.04 on 4/29, up from 348.85 the previous week. With the POG up to 286.60 (4/30), the ratio is 1.27, up from last week's 1.23. It has moved up from a level a few weeks ago that was nearly off the chart but, based on the date referenced in post 10, it continues in the range of values that strongly suggests the XAU will be substantially higher within a year. A year ago the ratio was 1.51, up from the 1.2s a couple of months earlier. For what its worth, based on a quick read, this week's Barron's does not appear to have much of interest to those that follow PM stocks or funds. However, it may be of interest that, in her Commodities Corner, Cheryl Einhorn suggest that the recent rise in the price natural gas is for real but her analysis is largely a summary of the views of one analyst. Andrew Bary, in his "The Trader" column leads off the statement that "The April just ended will be remembered for one of the most dramatic shifts in investor sentiment in the current bull market". He is referring to the move into cyclicals with Alcoa at the top of the list. This clearly augers well of commodities, including base metals, as well as PMs. Cheers, Larry