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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: James F. Hopkins who wrote (12590)	5/1/1999 12:44:00 AM
From: Vitas	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Jim, I kind of thought that until I looked at some charts this evening. A number of biggies made their highs earlier this month, and made lower highs before this downswing. MID made a new high today and then had an ugly looking reversal. We do have a shot at the seasonal month end first of month money coming in that may keep us afloat for a day or two. And maybe Goldman Sachs and friends will try to make things look good until they unload the IPO. The a-d line creeping above the down trendline from April 98 is a touchy issue, but it went below a trendline for a day or two in March, so it is still an open question. And 8-5 sto rsi, which has been calling moves well since the beginning of the year is headed down from overbought. Vitas

To: James F. Hopkins who wrote (12590)	5/1/1999 1:22:00 AM
From: Stephen	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

For the last two weeks my intradays have been showing that the big players are reducing their long positions in the market. I believe Gersh will confirm this (or not if you see this message ... please). The analysts are trying hard to keep this market going .... but they failed with MSFT ... and today was even more telling when they failed with GE. I believe the market is living on borrowed time ... and whilst I am happy to play it on the downside, I will not touch it on the dip/ rebound. There is real weakness in many of the stocks I watch ... though interestingly there does seem to be some institutional buying of the drug group....even though these are falling badly and still overpriced imho. So .... it seems to me that the market makers are positioning themselves to take this thing down. Needless to say, I remain bearish. One caveat .... of course .... if the market strength remains, there's a bunch of money to get back in which wll drive the market much higher. Either away, I don't believe we are range bound but will break one way or the other ... with my money on breaking downwards. One other observation ... Don Sew has intimated the leading position that the internuts have taken in the tech market. I have seen this also. I have also noticed that the (brief) historical patterns established for trading these stocks has elongated .... with trading runs lasting 5 days rather than 3 .... and even more interesting ... the sell in a timely fashion after Yahoo's earnings(or 'buy before the Robbie Stephens conference, sell at the H & Q) at this time of year. Perhaps there is a fundamental change, fueled by the willingness of analysts to upgrade or start coverage of these stocks ... a non-event previously. However, given that these recommendations seem to be geared upon likely price targets because of news and momentum rarther than any fundamental reason, once the tide has turned ... which maybe just delayed, this fueling could be provided on the downside due to 'valuations'. This could make any downturn that much worse. Of course, this won't happen until the analysts have their big clients out, the insiders have completed all the sales they want to do, and GS have IPO'd. Still ... it seems likely it is close at hand. In many ways, this run of the indices may turn out ot be the blow-out top ..... volitility, cyclical strength, internet mania ....et al. Have a great weekend eveyone Stephen

To: James F. Hopkins who wrote (12590)	5/1/1999 7:50:00 AM
From: jjs_ynot	Respond to of 99985

MACD UPDATE: The DOW is still in an uptrend started at the beginning of April. HFX, SPX, OEX, NASDAQ just broke down and signaled a down trend as of Friday's close, albeit ever so slightly. Confirmation will be required on Monday. IIX and NDX never recovered from the down move started in mid-April and are headed down. DOT.X is headed down steeply at the moment. The duration of the rise (in SPX, HFX, OEX, COMPX) from the most recent up signal a week ago was the shortest of any since this run started in October. We are again at a critical juncture. I would suggest that the market can't continue to recover from each one of these sell signals. Sooner probably rather than later, the market is going to have to make a move one way or the other. These whipsaws in intermediate trend are not sustainable.