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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Amelia Carhartt who wrote (39770)	5/1/1999 10:18:00 AM
From: William H Huebl	Respond to of 94695

Susan, Barron's based forecast from 5/3/99 issue: Oddlot short sales falling probably means some downward pressure on the markets; daily most actives falling- a slight indication more speculation coming into the markets (don't know how THAT is possible); OI options ratios are still benign; MarketWatch is 80% bearish which is bullish; LNHNL is benign. So the forecast for this week as it has been for over a month is volatility with bias to the upside. But watch out... there is a bull on the cover which, when coupled with bullishness on other mags covers could signal a peak. My indicators are more in a peaking mode than a bottom mode. My projection since Dec 1999 is 11,400 plus or minus 100 points. I haven't calculated the SCY ratio (stock-cash-yield-ratio) yet but I bet it is at an all time low which is EXTREMELY bearish. More later... Bill

To: Amelia Carhartt who wrote (39770)	5/1/1999 11:08:00 AM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Susan, Last week, around Monday, when the rates were right at 5.6% the intraday swings between the market and rates were so tight, that it was almost to the minute. At that time, when the rates went up slightly the overall market moved down some and vice versa, until the rates broke below 5.60%. That was intraday and almost to the minute, so I strongly feel that the equalibrium point between the market and rates is right at 5.60%. In light of that, if the rates stay above 5.60% for the short-mid term, such would put a cap on the market, and the more the rates get above 5.60% the more negative the market becomes. At times the rates decouple, but right now I believe there is a strong relation with 5.60% as the pivot point. Check the intraday charts on Monday for the market and rates and it was quite obvious. How long will that correlation last - I don't know, since at any time they could decouple again, and the rates may act as a flight to safety whereby the stock market and interest rates go down together. seeya

To: Amelia Carhartt who wrote (39770)	5/1/1999 12:28:00 PM
From: William H Huebl	Respond to of 94695

Susan, The lowest I have seen SCY is .9 and it was several weeks ago. Since then interest rates have backed off a bit and earnings/dividends have increased a bit. While I don't have daily data, per se, I suspect it hit .9 on Thursday and backed off to .91 yesterday. Don's point is a good one... at one time in history when Saler published his book on the SCY... the SCY turning point was 1.21 and I suspect it is around the .9 figure now. That probably translates to the 5.60 interest rate Don says he thinks is the pivot. At least for now... Bill