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To: Malcolm Winfield who wrote (43665)5/1/1999 9:38:00 AM
From: Crimson Ghost  Respond to of 95453
 
When assessing Larry Kudlow, important to realize that he along with people like Wayne Angell are fanatic devotees of the "commodity prices will remain low forever" school of economics. He has been right on the money these last few years. But methinks his moment in the sun is nearly done as the fundamental paradigm governing the global economy again shifts. So if oil prices go up and stay up, his credibility as a forecaster will be badly damaged.

Much as I disagree with Kudlow, his past history of drug use has no bearing on the accuracy of his current forecasts. Let's atttack the message, not the messenger. Attacking the messenger is often the weapon of those who cannot counter his arguments.

BTW, let's stop these infantile personal attacks and counterattacks. They demean the thread and will drive people away if not stopped or greatly curtailed.



To: Malcolm Winfield who wrote (43665)5/1/1999 11:07:00 AM
From: Crimson Ghost  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 95453
 
More problems for Caspian Sea oil:


thr 011
fm-oil-accord
 iran terms u.s.-azeri oil accord ''devoid of legal grounds''
tehran, may 1, irna -- foreign ministry spokesman hamid reza asefi
here friday evening said that the oil contract signed between
american oil companies and the republic of azerbaijan on utilization
of the caspian sea oil reserves is devoid of legal grounds.
asefi said that mechanisms for exploitation of the caspian sea
reserves is a topic of discussion among the littoral states, adding
that in case of the division of the sea, some of the oil fields in
areas specified in the recent contract signed between u.s. companies
and azerbaijan, will belong to iran.
therefore, any measure in the region is a violation of the
rights of the islamic republic of iran, asefi said, adding that oil
companies have already been cautoined and given warning on the
issue.
the islamic republic of iran while opposing signing of such
accords, considers them as devoid of legal credibility and grounds,
he said.
fs/ns/ys
end
::irna 01/05/99 12:31



To: Malcolm Winfield who wrote (43665)5/1/1999 1:12:00 PM
From: AltLar  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 95453
 
Caspian reserves may well be overstated. In January of last year I had several email correspondences with C.J Campbell of Petro Consultants in Geneva regarding his book "The Coming Oil Crisis". I questioned him regarding his take on Caspian reserves and he stated they were extremely overstated. BTW his book is a comprehensive analysis of global production, supply, and reserves over time. It is fascinating, also very readable. I believe it is required reading for any long term investor in this sector. I also questioned him regarding the apparent, recent oil glut. He said he was trying to predict the climate not the weather.
Larry