To: Sarmad Y. Hermiz who wrote (54466 ) 5/2/1999 9:04:00 AM From: Glenn D. Rudolph Respond to of 164684
Price: $193 1/2 Estimates (Dec) 1998A 1999E 2000E EPS: d$0.50 d$1.74 d$1.85 P/E: NM NM NM EPS Change (YoY): NM NM Consensus EPS: NA NA (First Call: 24-Mar-1999) Q2 EPS (Jun): d$0.12 d$0.52 Dividend Rate: Nil Nil Nil Dividend Yield: Nil Nil Nil Opinion & Financial Data Investment Opinion: D-2-1-9 Mkt. Value / Shares Outstanding (mn): $30,739/ 157 Book Value/Share (Mar-1999): $0.49 Price/Book Ratio: 395x LT Liability % of Capital: NM Stock Data 52-Week Range: $12 7/8-$216 * Symbol / Exchange: AMZN / OTC Options: Phila Institutional Ownership-Spectrum: 35.3% Brokers Covering (First Call): 20 ML Industry Weightings & Ratings** Strategy; Weighting Rel. to Mkt.: Income: Underweight (07-Mar-1995) Growth: Overweight (07-Mar-1995) Income & Growth: Overweight (07-Mar-1995) Capital Appreciation: In Line (28-Jan-1999) Market Analysis; Technical Rating: Below Average (28-Dec-1998) *Intermediate term opinion last changed on 09-Mar-1999. **The views expressed are those of the macro department and do not necessarily coincide with those of the Fundamental analyst. For full investment opinion definitions, see footnotes. Investment Highlights: * Amazon.com's Q1 results slightly exceeded our revised expectations in all key metrics. We are maintaining our rating. We would not be surprised to see some weakness near-term. * In keeping with its strategy of focusing on long-term value creation rather than short-term bottom-line performance, management is again massively increasing its investment plans for the remainder of 1999 and 2000. This will result in a near quadrupling of our estimated 1999 operating losses—an action that should provide plenty of ammo for those who argue the company “will never make money.” * We continue to believe that aggressive investment is the best plan for the long term—a plan that, if successful, will lead to industry-leading profitability, market share, and market capitalization. We should note, however, that this belief is based on faith, not evidence. * We are raising our 1999 revenue estimates from $1.2 billion to $1.4 billion. We are also cutting our EPS estimates significantly: from a loss of $0.90 to a loss of $1.74. Comment United States Internet \ Electronic Commerce 29 April 1999 Henry Blodget First Vice President Amazon.com Q1: Settling in (and Spending Even More) For the Long Haul ACCUMULATE* Long Term BUY Reason for Report: Quarterly Earnings Merrill Lynch & Co. Global Securities Research & Economics Group Global Fundamental Equity Research Department RC#20111951 Stock Performance 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09 0.10 0.11 0.12 0.13 1996 1997 1998 1999 Amazon.com Rel to S&P Composite Index (500) (Right Scale)