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Technology Stocks : Son of SAN - Storage Networking Technologies -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: George Dawson who wrote (1205)	5/1/1999 6:46:00 PM
From: Pigboy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4808

Thanks George, I really thought Kerry had a great 'scenario' post the other day. Looks like BRCD starts at $8-10, but like he said, this probably won't raise enough cash (~30 mill. in this hot IPO climate --ie. did you see MRBA on friday???) so watch this bumped up further by the big money boys just prior to release. Perhaps, it will look just like the WEBT example Kerry set as an example (ie. brcd possibly going at ~$14). If the tech market holds up here, I expect this IPO to come sooner rather than later. Even though BRCD has only two major oems in an emerging field, I bet they have their share of news to help fuel any possible hype. I certainly will be watching. I think Goldman goes monday, maybe brocade is going to try to go within the next two weeks?? i still cannot believe mrba's opening price. does this market show any rationality? ;-) I am excited. Even though I am very long Ancor (unfortunately wanted to pick up some trading shares at low 5's...might not get that chance), I would like to try to participate in the brcd ipo somehow. I'm wondering whether to buy it after it comes out (considering I believe it will be pretty easy to rationalize it will be too inflated ;-) There aren't many switch makers, and Ancor getting a tier one last week shows things will be interesting in the years ahead, imho. Owning both ancor and brocade may just be the logical thing to do. George, do you have any plans with regards to participating somehow in the brcd ipo? Hopefully it will raise a lot of attention to Fibre Channel. Even though qlgc, emlx, lgto, vrts, emc, etc... have done very well so far, i think MUCH of the investing public still has NOT EVEN heard of Fibre Channel yet or realized that the time of the SAN is finally upon us. Hopefully this BRCD ipo really gets a lot of recognition because it might signal more of an "awakening" to a lot of investment people on this new industry. all imho pigboy

To: George Dawson who wrote (1205)	5/2/1999 3:04:00 AM
From: Kerry Lee	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4808

Go to: ipodata.com This is a better website than IPO.com. You will find a quick, up-to-date summary of each recently filed IPO's as well as new IPO's. Look at the summary of both Brocade ( BRCD ) and Marimba ( MRBA ). - BRCD uses Morgan Stanley and Alex Brown..so does MRBA - BRCD has trailing 12 months revenues of $24 million, MRBA trailing 12 months revenues are $17 million. -BRCD has 25 million shares, MRBA has 22 million shares - BRCD is offering 3.25 million shares in the IPO, MRBA offered 4 million shares - BRCD preliminary pricing range is $8 - 10..In comparison, MRBA originally priced at $13-15 range but jacked UP to $16-18 range on 4/28/99, then finally priced at $20 on 4/20/99. - MRBA closed its first day as a public company at $60 3/4...a market capitalization of $1.36 Billion. That translates to a Price-to-Sales ( PSR ) ratio of 80. PE is irrelevent since MRBA lost $6 million in 1998. You can bet that these savvy Wall St sharks will SPIN a great story on the BRCD roadshow, EG: the hype/buzz surrounding Fibre Channel, SANs , how SANS are an integral part of Internet growth ( eg MTIC and DoubleClick deal )and how one of THE 3 co-founders of SUNW, Andreas Bechtolscheim took Cisco to the cleaners with Granite and and invested a chunk of his Cisco profits into BRCD. - I would not be surprised to see BRCD IPO VERY successful and trade into the $30-40 range in its first week.This would translate into BRCD market cap at $750 million - $1 billion. If BRCD does not perform hot out of the gates, then it would signal that something is amiss at BRCD from a fundamentals perspective that the fund managers have picked up something negative about BRCD during due diligence.The month of May should be interesting..I would not be surprised to see BRCD announce another OEM soon to boost the interest in the IPO roadshow...on the other hand, I'm not sure if an OEM announcement prior to the IPO would violate the SEC quiet period. Any lawyers care to comment? PS - I would also not be surprised if BRCD foregoes the IPO and becomes CSCO-captive..perhaps their strategy is to use the IPO as a bargaining chip to squeeze a better price out of CSCO??