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Technology Stocks : JDS Uniphase (JDSU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: gdichaz who wrote (279)	5/1/1999 11:04:00 PM
From: Hank Stamper	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 24042

"To Paullie: Suggest that the best time to buy either JDS Fitel or Uniphase was yesterday, with the second best, tomorrow." I wonder how it is possible to justify purchase of this, or any company stock with the market so richly valued. The S&P 500 is in the 27 range--well beyond ALL previous records. Interest rates are rising--look at the long bond prices. I don't follow UNPH but do watch JDS (which I own long), and its valuation is way out of wack, (except when compared to the internut stocks, which have negative valuation in many cases). At these levels, the longer we go without a market correction, the more pronounced the inevitable reversal is likely to be. The last correction was just shy of 20% on the DOW and MUCH deeper for the tech stocks. That correction was off a market with better fundamentals than the current situation. Remember then? Remember when everybody was fretting over how high valuations were on the S&P. "Man," they said, "this can't last. We're at a forward p/e of 23 and that is a record. This market can't go further without a correction." When was the last time you heard any commentator or a person posting on SI speak or write about vexatiousness of current valuations? All we get now is "Man, this market will keep delivering upside on upside. Buy more, now, cuz it's going up. What? Me worry?" There just is NO worry now. There is just so little upside potential left here. I would be a fool to buy into this company at these levels--I might see it go up another 8 or 10 dollars (JDS). I also might see it continue it's turn from 97 and drop down into the 50 dollar or below range. That's where it would begin to represent "fair" value, actually. Ciao, David Todtman