To: Salt'n'Peppa who wrote (2311 ) 5/2/1999 1:54:00 PM From: Check Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 15703
Hi Rick, <<I think that would put HTP in the $20/share region and KOB somewhere around $7.50/share.>> My abacus shows a little over $10/share for KOB and just under $17 for HTP based on the Yorton reserves guesstimate. Then again, I have a problem with their numbers to begin with. In Exhibit 1, for example, they cut ELK's working interest down to 5% and give BKP, POU and WML a combined 80%!!! RLP is mentioned but given none and our beloved HTP, KOB and PYRX don't even rate that much. Reading that garbage could give an outside observer the impression that the latter four and the private companies involved get to divvy up no more than 15% among them. Leaving Exhibits 2 & 3 right alone, I'd like to dearly know if the pressure in our well has dropped by almost a half, (as per Exhibit 4 -in which case I would want to sell immediately) or are they talking about someone else's reservoir? On the other hand, they are postulating an areal extend of 15,000 acres which, on the basis of one hole in the ground, strikes me as slightly premature. I mean sure, we have 15,000 acres, we have lot more, but it will take at least 2 years to prove it up and delineate it all. I would much prefer a better informed speculation about one fifth of that are which should still give us some very exiting numbers. I think the other reason our KOB/HTP valuations are so far apart is the number of shares we are using. I use the F/D numbers and make further adjustments, e.g. I expect KOB to be in the market for at least 1.5 million shares as soon as the kill is done,(hopefully not before <ggg>). CIO and have a good day.