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Microcap & Penny Stocks : Globalstar Telecommunications Limited GSAT -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: A.J. Mullen who wrote (4404)	5/1/1999 8:24:00 PM
From: Andmoreagain	Respond to of 29987

Globalstar phone users: It would seem Iridium has amply demonstrated that the market for multi-mode satellite phones employed by "roaming" users is limited. You may argue that the reason this was so was because Iridium was too expensive. But Globalstar isn't that much cheaper, once all charges are factored in, despite what has been said on this board. So the truly attractive market would seem to be the fixed-phone market. But how lucrative, really, is this market? What are the demographics of the fixed-phone (payphone) market? How will the average Brazilian country villager, or Chinese country villager employ this phone? Certainly not to call his broker in New York, but more likely to call his sister in Sao Paulo, or Beijing. What will these calls cost, and how often will this villager make such calls? If they are $1.00 per minute, let's say, I doubt his sibling will hear from him often; he still has to put food on the table. Could someone with actual knowledge of this please break down the mobile/fixed estimate of Globalstar use, and an estimate of profit from each segment? This would seem to be of more help in valuing the company than discussions over car kits, and fuel schedules. Thanks.

To: A.J. Mullen who wrote (4404)	5/1/1999 9:22:00 PM
From: RMiethe	Read Replies (6) \| Respond to of 29987

The assertion is not factual. Globalstar is not going after the relatively well-off (as opposed to the super rich)--unless by relatively well-off you mean income of, American dollars, $57,000/year. For that is the user base income profile of the average waiting list individual for a Globalstar phone. I would suggest you contact China Telecom (their telephone number is publicly available) and see if it is targeting the "relatively well-off" in China. You won't find the average income of a waiting list individual in China to even be $57,000/year American. The People's Republic of China has a mandate to its rural municipalities without adequate phone coverage to provide its rural population with telephony. If that means government subsidies, then it means that. The government fully acknowledges that. A mandate, a political promise, from the old style socialists who see what a market economy can do for the standard of living, and how universal telephony availability for all hastens that betterment in the standard of living. Call Vodaphone Network in New South Wales and see if they are targeting the "relatively well-off". As I said, and have frequently said: Americans have a preconception of the market to be targeted by Globalstar's system, a preconception that is not borne out by the targeted markets of Globalstar in any of their telco partner surveys, and then your statement, Mr. Mullen, that Globalstar is targeting the relatively well-off. It simply is not true. When you own as many shares of Globalstar as we do, you have to go beyond preconceptions... I have also said that China Telecom, in the end, will be the wild card in the entire Globalstar equation. That is my opinion, based on intuition or gut-- nothing more. If it books customers and satellite time to the pace of 500,000 users over a two year period, all these discussions (including my own) on this board will have been airy speculation and probably a waste of time. If China Telecom does become the "ace in the hole", Globalstar shareholders will be certainly pleased. If not, the system will not have the ramp-up speed, as far as I can tell, for solid price appreciation in its share price. That is why I suggested checking China Telecom marketing efforts in the summer is a good way to avoid speculation and guessing on what is going on at Globalstar as far as FY 2000 is concerned and user ramp-up. I will hasten to add that I have not even addressed the Brazilian or South African market. I am told though that the Union of South Africa is lucrative potential for Globalstar. I have been told that, have not verified it. Globalstar management and partners (who are in the cell phone business already) were not so foolish to target the Iridium world traveller, the "roamer" in the United States or western Europe. It knows it could not win in that market, and never intended to. When it calls itself a compliment to cellular coverage it means just that-- to provide telephony where cellular coverage is not available for miles. Not to provide coverage to me on the way down from Los Angeles to Palm Springs-- but to areas around Wuahn China, Guiyang China, Bautou China, Agra India, Alma-Ata in Kazakhstan-- that's what it means by complementing cellular coverage. Consider this all good information, Mr. Mullen: because it is. It does not go off preconceptions, but actually walks through the Globalstar business plan itself. As for the actual number of cattle ranchers in Australia-- I would not know how many there are there. Nor do you. I do have a fairly good idea of how much phone time those cattle ranchers need to become more efficient in transactions with the different markets they do business with. Ask Vodaphone Network in New South Wales (Granville, Australia, actually). They will also tell you.

To: A.J. Mullen who wrote (4404)	5/2/1999 2:13:00 AM
From: Drew Williams	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29987

<< Gstar is going after wealthy people with their dual mode phone - not super rich by US standards, but relatively well-off. Most of those people live in cities. Most people of all sorts live in cities. Cities already have cell phones. Cell phones are more important where there are not decent landlines. Cell phones are the intoduction to Gstar, and the competition. >> Today I took my daughter to her soccer game at the Phoenixville, PA, YMCA. During the game, I whipped out my trusty Ericsson TDMA phone to get my office voice mail, and found the signal strength meter was showing zero bars. I had lost the digital (TDMA) signal completely and was barely able to complete the call on the analogue signal. Phoenixville is about a forty minutes drive from center city Philadelphia. I've mentioned this many times before, but my experience has been that as soon as I get outside the major metropolitan areas and off the interstates, American cellular service is seriously Swiss cheese (lots of holes.) Depending on which service you subscribe to, there may be fewer or more holes in different places. The farther away and off I go, the worse the service gets, and I really do not believe terrestrial service will get that much better. I'm not worried about making calls in the car or in buildings any more with GlobalStar than with my existing cellular. It will either work the same as or better than what I have now. I'm not worried too much about the price, either. I paid more for an analog phone way-back-when (it paid for itself quickly) than I expect to pay for a GlobalStar phone in the not-too-distant future. Then I will use the relatively expensive GlobalStar minutes only when the relatively cheap cellular minutes are not available. Of course, I only use the relatively expensive cellular minutes when I am not in my home or office to use my relatively inexpensive copper wire telephone minutes. Am I wealthy? Relative to other people in my neighborhood, no. But, relative to most people living in rural Chinese or Indian villages, I am wealthy beyond belief -- as is everyone else reading this thread. This is a concept my nine year old daughter cannot yet grasp, but I suspect most people here will do better. (My daughter has trouble believing anyone could possibly have ever lived without The Disney Channel, much less television in general.) I cannot claim to know all the technical ins and outs of GlobalStar's systems. I'm not an engineer and would not know an orthoganal wave form if I tripped over one. But, what I've read of their marketing plans makes sense to me. GlobalStar is one more element of the ongoing change from isolated family units to villages to towns and cities to states and nations to international and finally global communications. They also have more than one marketing plan, as does any largish concern successfully selling in multiple markets. 1: Get phones into the hands of first world heavy cellular users and generate some cash flow. 2) Get phones into the hands of those people who have no options: international travelers. 3) Get phones into the hands of village chieftains so the gazillions of people who have never seen a televised soccer match or made a phone call, will be able to. At a profit. There's a few cool paradigms for you.