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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (20674)	5/1/1999 10:58:00 PM
From: Lachesis Atropos	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 68005

Hi Harry, thanks for the sanity check. Your right there is no technical basis to be in this market except for the short side. However, I am by no means fully invested. I only have 20% in stocks right now and am anticipating, after Kosovo, a decline in the market. I did have some money in a high-risk cash account that was begging me trade. I am also toying with another TA trading strategy. I am assembling a tight (highly correlated) group of stocks over a period of about one year. Use FA to further determine that they are indeed quite specialized to the group--what affects one should affect all. Many companies are diversified so the task of finding a stock to include is not easy. I have some time at work to do a little market research. Then after I assemble a group, rotate, using TA, stocks (short and long) within a specific group; something similar to the dogs of the Dow, or the Fool 4 approach but specific to a group. Call it Fool 4 does TA. It is not a foolproof approach, one only has to look at the 5-year chart, to show that stocks do not move together for extended periods of time. I think this approach has greater merit than using MAs and SDs on a single stock. Time will tell. In the software-consulting sector I foresee an increase in services. For example, believe it or not OS/2 still exists in some companies. Ralston Purina and a major portion of MCI WorldCom's order entry systems run on OS/2. MCI WorldCom tried to decommission OS/2 but came too close to the Y2k spector. Directors freaked and disbanded efforts to move the system to NT. Y2K did create a backlog and some consulting companies will benefit. Even with the overall market at these exceedingly high levels the stocks I am playing are beaten down and will hopefully rise even if the rest of the market plummets over the next few months. If they do not rise I could then short the stock at the top of the group. I could also loose all my high-risk capital and sit on my hands pouting for the rest of the year! Lachesis