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Pastimes : Kosovo -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Machaon who wrote (6280)	5/1/1999 8:25:00 PM
From: Douglas V. Fant	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 17770

Robert, Looks like Russian warships will escort Russian Oil Tankers into Montenegrin ports. Also I see a consensus for a UN-brokered solution now forming between France, Russia, Germany, Spain, and Italy- control of the war IMO is moving away from the USA anyway....(Remember Germany is now the powerhouse of western Europe, not Great Britain). Oil Embargo Resurfaces Enforcement Issue 1700 GMT, 990501 The European Union / NATO imposed oil embargo on Yugoslavia is in effect prohibiting the direct or indirect sale of petroleum and petroleum products to both Serbia and Montenegro. Now the U.S. has once again demonstrated its willingness to go one step further than the international community. Today, President Clinton signed a unilateral trade embargo effectively shutting off the Yugoslav republic of Serbia (Montenegro was exempted). These sanctions, according to a White House spokesman encompass a ''total trade embargo, which includes oil, all strategic goods, all software, all services, and any other potential exports." There are two issues here. First, is it actually the case that the United States has now waged war on Serbia for over a month without prohibiting trade with the enemy? Second, if Montenegro is exempted, and there is trade between Montenegro and Serbia, what possible meaning do these embargoes have? Most important, of course, is what difference will it make? Will anyone else, allied or opposed, honor the embargo? What will the United States do if someone breaks it? For example, Russian special envoy to Yugoslavia Viktor Chernomyrdin again emphasized his country's continued opposition to the oil blockade saying that according to international law an oil embargo could only be imposed by the United Nations. Chernomyrdin added that the embargo, imposed by the EU and NATO, would not affect Russia in any way. This sentiment has been previously expressed and noted, particularly in regards to the "visit and search" regime discussed last week at the NATO summit. Russia has now declared its intention to escort its tankers with warships. This brings us back to the question of how the embargo will be enforced. On one hand, General Wesley Clark and other military commanders have frequently stated that they feel force should be an option. On the other, there are those who have questioned the legality of the embargo, including France which yesterday said stopping and searching ships would amount to "an act of war." Despite the bluster emanating from the White House, it seems doubtful that the U.S. or NATO would actually forcibly stop and search a Russian vessel heading into a Montenagrin port. This isn't brinksmanship Cold War style, but it is a challenge to the new role NATO is carving out for itself. The message, intentional or not, that is being broadcast to Belgrade is that the U.S. is the wild card and that Russia is the rational actor.