Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: marc ultra who wrote (4904)	5/2/1999 6:14:00 AM
From: Boca_PETE	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

marc U: I had the same take on that smart-ass caller "Jerry". I thought his voice sounded familiar, however compared to Jerry's past calls to the program, his one was mild. bobbrinker.com P

To: marc ultra who wrote (4904)	5/2/1999 12:49:00 PM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 15132

Do you think the caller was wrong in seeking clarification from what even you say sounded like an almost bearish Bob Brinker who is still 100% invested? Asset allocation isn't digital. IF Bob is really concerned, would not a reduction of allocation in stock by 10% or more make sense? I've been looking at doing just that myself. I didn't hear the call as I was windsurfing again, but I have it on tape. Was the caller rude? Clearly, Bob is ranked by Hulbert and Timer Digest for published portfolios which are 100% invested presently so there is no "official" way to be "right no matter what happens" because the results are there for all to see. There is a difference between asking tough questions and being a pain as the Rillinois was. I sure wouldn't want to discourage difficult questions... regards Kirk

To: marc ultra who wrote (4904)	5/3/1999 8:30:00 PM
From: marc ultra	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 15132

I think without getting into proprietary information lets look at some root causes of a bear market, something I would not be surprised to see discussed in the next MarkeTimer. Tight money:risks of Fed taking away one of their 1/4 point decreases is rising rapidly but probably OK for the moment Rising rates:long rates remain stubbornly around 5 2/3. With the economy maintaining momentum, not great Inflation has risen a bit quarter to quarter on GDP deflator, still quite low on absolute basis. Rapid growth- the BIG problem in my mind, economy not slowing down as much as predicted. Asia and Latin America all seem to be recovering to some degree loosening any external brakes. With the economy and the market powering forward if the Fed becomes no longer afraid of tanking emerging markets their attention will be fully turned to the strength in the US. With the Dow at 11K and people walking around with split beepers and sitting in day trading shops are they still going to be worrying about a rate increase tanking the markets?, I don't think so. Overvaluation-certainly a good case can be made at this point and at these long rates. Now let's discuss sentiment- we've gotten extremely bullish, only the II hasn't quite gotten over 70%. As Bob discussed on the weekend all the other measures of sentiment in his model are flashing over- exuberance. We may soon be living through interesting times Marc