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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Compadre who wrote (12623)	5/2/1999 3:30:00 AM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 99985

>>The rebound late Friday of the markets had me in doubts for a while<< Don't make it harder than it is. We have a saying in the Air Force, "KISS" Keep it simple stupid. (not implying you are stupid). As I have stated here numerous times, it started as a joke but the reliability is too high to be accidental. If there is a drop during the week in the DOW or else a selloff begins on a Thursday or Friday early/late session, the J6P affect will kick in before Friday's close to make the market appear as if everything is OK. The last thing the brokerages want is a bunch of phone calls over the weekend from private non-paying attention fund holders wanting their money pulled out. It is much easier to trap the money on Monday by taking Schwab (and other on line brokerages) off line so the big money can get out first <ng> If J6P opens his Sunday newspaper and sees that Fridays close was only slightly off he is comfortable. If Monday-Thursday was down but Friday is up, he thinks it is on it's way back up. He doesn't know what cap weighting is, he doesn't know what a GDP, a Bond or anything else is, all he knows is, DOW up = good. The GDP report Friday showed that exports dropped 7%. No that is not a decimal point 7, that is seven full percent, it also showed that personal saving dropped to the lowest level since the government started tracking it in 1946. Of course none of this is being reported on the talk shows. All I have seen the talking heads say this weekend is how everything is fine, buy the dip, high interest rates don't matter all that could kill this market is a raise in Capital gains tax yadda yadda yadda. Nothing matters in other words, markets only go up. PS - I heard there was a bull on the front of Barrons. I believe that is two bulls on the front of the rags in two weeks. We must be getting close. Friday's pullback morphed my class one weekly sell on the DOW to a class 2. It can take a few weeks before the sell signal bears fruit but it has been pretty reliable. We may not drop right away but I wouldn't be adding any new long term investments right now. I think you might get a tad better price in the next few weeks <ggg> There could be some nice short term swings though as the Buy the dipsters and goldman sachs try to keep life in this thing. Good Luck, Lee