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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JRI who wrote (121607)	5/2/1999 6:27:00 AM
From: arthur pritchard	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

hey john:<since i can't sleep> I was about to feel sorry for you, until I realized that it's 3:20am where I am, and I'm out doing landlording things...barely able to follow the thread...please all, keep up the good dialogue, as it is a constant reminder of the real value of the internet---friendship and the willingness to speak out WITH RESPECT for the other person(s). The Dell thread is absolutely the best. Some day there will be an ancient Chinese expression <ggg> "I can understand not owning their computers, or not owning their stock, but I can't understand them not participating in the Dell thread...... ".......

To: JRI who wrote (121607)	5/2/1999 6:39:00 AM
From: JRI	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 176387

Larry, let me add that even though the numbers get mind-boggling for Dell (ie., projecting this unreal, almost unbelievable growth rates: revenue at 30% p.a. with a company selling 200B in annual revs)...some factors have to be kept in mind.. (1) China, India, Latin America will be, in all likelihood, serviced by their own massive, multiple site plant facilities..these businesses are distinct from Dell USA (in other words, problems in hiring in Austin doesn't mean a lot in Beijing)...Having enormous facilities on several continents will allow Dell to acheive sustained high growth, even when the numbers (75B a year, 100B a year, etc.) get too hard to fathom.... (2) Dell could buy growth (Gateway....dare I say, Compaq, or parts of.....), or take over others' PC manufacturing (IBM)..Dell is a cash machine...at some point, acquisition(s) are not out of the question...(Especially if a continued fast growth is a priority of Dell's management team...which it seems to be...)...Certainly, it would seem that Rollins and Michael Dell are going to be around for many years (likely even in 2008).. (3) The internet allows for massive businesses to be set-up rather quickly (witness Amazon, AOL, etc. rev. growth)...such businesses as financing, ISP revenues, etc. are relatively easy set-up, high revenue ops... (4) We are assuming that hardware sales (ASPs) will continue to head downward at a relentless pace....what if this pace slowed, or even flattened (or went upwards for a while)...this, too, for grow the revenue pie, and, obviously, lessen Dell's % of the overall market (given the growth rate I've implied).. Again, I know my revenue estimates are aggressive, but think about how it could be accomplished in say, 2005 if Dell has multiple plants in Brazil, China, India, Nashville, Europe (Ireland and the continent)...perhaps in Russia....think also, many other product and service lines.... Just a few more things to nibble on...

To: JRI who wrote (121607)	5/2/1999 12:29:00 PM
From: OLDTRADER	Respond to of 176387

RE:John Rosser-Excellent analysis-No one --I repeat NO ONE-will catch DELL-so what is THAT worth "in the future'?Worldwide domination of the most required "IT world gizmo/biz".Tell me again-what was MSFT worth in 1982?wbm

To: JRI who wrote (121607)	5/3/1999 11:07:00 AM
From: Dave B	Respond to of 176387

john, I think the key part to your answer to Larry is contained in the two paragraphs you wrote: In your hardware total (55B), are you including storage, servers, workstations?? Or just PC's? What about computer periphrial sales (Dell is in that business, you know)....If you have not included these items, perhaps you should (in the overall revenue total)...that brings down the % (70B in Q1, 2008) to way below 50% of total revenues... But wait, this does not account for any NEW product areas that Dell may enter between now and 2008...Now, given that 3 years ago, Dell had virtually no presence in servers, workstations, storage, and computer periphrials...wouldn't it stand to reason that over the next 9 years....Dell will be entering (also) entirely NEW markets (who knows what? Hand-helds, ISP revenues, other electronic gadgets, etc.)..I certainly DONT know, but I'm certain some fairly big opportunities will open up, and Dell will seize upon them in short order... For some reason, the detractors believe that Dell is going to simply stay in the PC business, and forget all of the other opportunities that are out there (and that they're already making inroads into). Microsoft's growth would have slowed long ago if they had just stayed in the operating system business. 3Com would have dried up and blown away years ago if they had just stayed in the NIC business (before anyone pipes up, yes they're in trouble now as well, but they had a lot of growth in the meantime). GE would probably be out of business if they had just stayed in the light bulb business (or whatever they made first). All the good companies constantly evaluate their positions in the market and look for continued growth opportunities. Dell has exhibited successes already in doing this and has exhibited the mindset that should allow this to continue. $100B does not seem an unreasonable number to me for Dell, though I doubt any of us can predict what the product mix will be when they get there. Dave