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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: j g cordes who wrote (20679)	5/2/1999 1:35:00 PM
From: Lachesis Atropos	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 68009

Jim, some how I get the feeling you may have a better answer than me. In answering such a vast topic, I can only provide you with a glimpse through a keyhole; so here goes. On the conclusion of the war, we will return to post war trading, metals and mining will abate. Also manufacturing will slow. Remember before the war broke out there was a gut of steel and manufacturing was hurting. For a concrete example, a friend in Trail B.C. noticed that there are line-ups of American transports at Cominco,http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=CLT&d=t. Cominco was one of the largest producers of lead, zinc and copper in the world. It does well in times of war. I think the war affected in a positive way first line manufacturing companies by creating an anticipated demand for basic metals and other technologies used in war. Some industries not affected by war are consolidating and also take into account y2k expenses. I am not to sure how potent the Y2K specter is at this moment. However, the conclusion of the war and the announcement of a Y2K specter in Asia or Latin America could topple the markets into another September 1998. Just guessing ~10 to 20% drop overnight in the S&P 500 followed by a downtrend. From this distance, we are still quite far from 2000; Y2K could be the Grinch who stole Christmas. I believe a combination of events has to occur for a sudden drop. In general the market will trend down until two days after the last quarter earnings season ends. And if the Thomas' fund does pick up and hold out for the rest of the year, I would see this as a good portend for the rest of the US industries—business as usual in unusual times. Lachesis