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To: Lee who wrote (121639)	5/2/1999 1:59:00 PM
From: Mohan Marette	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 176387

<--OT-->Hormats (Goldman Sachs) on GDP growth. Lee: Since when is 3.3-3.7 % GDP growth considered 'moderate'? I think I will take the 'moderate' growth please.Now if we can keep the inflation thing under control we got it made. As you can see Hormats is a bit worried about the current account and trade deficit situation,I don't know about the current account but don't you think the trade deficit should get better as the world economies begin to recover (particularly Asia) as they are reported to be doing now,heck it couldn't be any worse than 1997 & 1998 now could it? I also think the commodity prices should stabilize and improve as we go along and that should help the U.S as well with respect to the trade deficit. =========================== (Courtesy:Marketwire) Goldman's Hormats Sees 3.3 to 3.7 Percent U.S. GDP 12.17 p.m. ET (1617 GMT) May 2, 1999 CARLSBAD — The U.S. economy will likely grow at a moderate pace, with tame consumer-level inflation in 1999, Robert Hormats, managing director of Goldman Sachs International said Saturday. "The chances of the U.S. going into recession, in my judgement, are very low, and the chances of a resurgence in inflation also are very low," Hormats told the annual Options Industry Conference. "The probability this year is that the U.S. growth rate will be between 3.3 percent and, say, 3.7 percent," he said. "The impressive element here is ... that we have very low inflation. My guess is that inflation will be around 2.0 percent, maybe a touch higher, this year than last year" as measured by the Consumer Price Index. The U.S. Commerce Department Friday reported that first-quarter U.S. Gross Domestic Product grew at a 4.5-percent rate. Hormats believes commodity prices, especially oil, have already bottomed out, U.S. productivity will stay strong and the Asian crisis which helped keep goods and services cheap generally has passed. "Inflation is not going to be a lot stronger this year than last year but all the really good anti-inflationary benefits have pretty much gone out of the economy," he said. "Perhaps in our euphoria about inflation, we have totally discounted inflation in the future ... Inflation looks very good but we shouldn't be complacent about it." Hormats also said that any substantial widening in the U.S. current account or trade imbalances or a "frittering away" of the U.S. budget surplus "both would be very negative" for the economy. "This is one of the risks. If the [U.S.] savings rate remains very low and the current account and trade deficits become substantially wider, then that becomes an unsustainable situation," he said. "As long as foreigners are willing to finance this very, very large U.S. current account deficit, which in turn means they are financing the gap between what Americans save and what they invest, everything is fine."

To: Lee who wrote (121639)	5/2/1999 11:03:00 PM
From: rudedog	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

Lee - mistress maybe but not master Does that include the whips, boots and handcuffs, mistress??

To: Lee who wrote (121639)	5/2/1999 11:08:00 PM
From: Mohan Marette	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

<U.S.Economy>Chicago-Area Factories Rev Up, Purchasers Say Lee: Here is little something for you. Date: 5/3/99 'Midwest manufacturers roared into spring as the Chicagoland Business Barometer jumped 6.3 points in April to 63.3, a four-year high. Analysts had expected a small decline. The new orders index surged 10.5 points to 68.7, a near-five-year high. And prices are firming: The prices-paid index rose 4.2 points to 56.7. The Chicago report suggests the national purchasers' index for April will show strong gains when it's released on Monday. Courtesy:IBD