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Strategies & Market Trends : Shorting stocks: Broken stocks - Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Allen Furlan who wrote (2295)	5/2/1999 5:28:00 PM
From: drakes353	Respond to of 2506

Allen: I would greatly appreciate it if you could look at three stocks(idtc,sero,mi) to see if a positive change in RS occurred between the end of March and the end of April and whether there was a negative delta prior to March. No can do. Won't have April RS data until I get my next QInvestor CD, around 10 days to two weeks from now. If you're following just a handfull of stocks I'd recommend manually tracking the RS numbers from IDB on a weekly basis. BTW, IBD now has info available online (via subscription) which might have historical RS data. I think it's at dailygraphs.com Would also suggest you pick up the O'S book to take a look at his work. Regards, drakes353

To: Allen Furlan who wrote (2295)	5/2/1999 10:17:00 PM
From: Q.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 2506

Allen, I took one quick peek at IDTC for you. The reason I chose that stock is that I seem to remember it being a short-sellers favorite a couple of years ago, but my memory of this is hazy. All that I looked at was the 5 year chart, the Yahoo profile: biz.yahoo.com and the Yahoo comparison to other Communication Service stocks: yahoo.marketguide.com IDTC has a fairly low 1-year RS, but it has been rebounding in the last few months. (Is that what you call positive delta?)Its PSR is about 2, and PSR is 2.7, which is not what I would call an obvious value, when you consider that it is a money-losing company. These multiples are cheaper than the industry as a whole, but the co. looks a lot less healthy too. Moreover, the profile's description of the co. makes it sound like it is in a highly competitive service business, and one where it is hard to be anything special. This is not a broken stock, and I don't see an extremely compelling reason to short it, but as a value investor at first glance it doesn't look very appealing either.

To: Allen Furlan who wrote (2295)	5/2/1999 10:41:00 PM
From: Ocote	Respond to of 2506

Allen, here are the relative strenghs for your stocks at the end of March 1998, end of March 1999, and May 1. Relative strength here is that as defined by Quotes Plus, which takes into account performance over the past 4 quarters, but doubles the effect of the last quarter. IBD uses a different method altogether, and other use merely the performance over 6 months compared to other stocks. Ticker IDTC 99 23 95 SERO 78 19 6 MI 42 7 9 All three are experiencing all-time high volume over the past couple weeks, so something must be happening there. Ocote