To: D. Long who wrote (6395 ) 5/2/1999 5:56:00 PM From: James R. Barrett Respond to of 17770
More from Stratfor News. 2010 GMT , 990502 - Rubin's Casual Insult of Ukraine has Serious Implications Viktor Chernomyrdin is due in Washington tomorrow. He is carrying a letter from Boris Yeltsin and the results of several days of discussion in Bonn, Rome and Belgrade. He clearly has a proposal to make for a non-NATO armed security force. Washington, along with the UK, is the main holdout on this deal. The United States gave its response today with James Rubin's extraordinary statement that a "bunch of armed Ukrainians" would not be able to provide security. Now, it is clear that Washington wants NATO forces to be included in the peacekeeping force. Undoubtedly, this can be negotiated, so long as the force is not exclusively NATO and so long as U.S. and British forces are not included. From the U.S. point of view, this should be a relief. Already bearing the burden of Bosnia, Iraq and Korea, there is no reason not to leave Kosovo to Germany, Italy, and others, as well as Ukrainians. What is absolutely stunning here is the utter contempt with which Rubin is treating the Ukrainians. An independent Ukraine is absolutely indispensable to the United States if it expects to prevent the reemergence of an integrated CIS under Moscow's domination. Ukraine is in the midst of its own domestic crisis focusing on just how close it should draw to Russia and how much it should depend on the United States. Rubin's contemptuous dismissal of Ukraine was not only gratuitous but also dangerous in the current context of affairs in Kiev. Clearly, the strain of being increasingly isolated in NATO is starting to show. Unless Washington can calm its nerves overnight, Chernomyrdin's mission will fail. If it fails because of Washington's belligerent unwillingness to contemplate alternative arrangements to the peacekeeping mission, Washington faces the very real possibility of a split with Germany and Italy breaking into the public. Since the war's prosecution depends on Italy's willingness to allow its air bases to be used, and since we believe Italy thinks highly of a peacekeeping force built around countries like Ukraine, Albright had better get her press spokesman under control fairly quickly.stratfor.com