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Strategies & Market Trends : The Thread Formerly Known as No Rest For The Wicked -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: kathyh who wrote (35210)5/2/1999 6:27:00 PM
From: Tim Luke  Respond to of 90042
 
things seem to have settled down a bit but like i said before COMS is my last play here until glenn has the site up and going and then it's bye bye......hope you join me!



To: kathyh who wrote (35210)5/3/1999 7:31:00 AM
From: kathyh  Respond to of 90042
 
Good morning all... good overview to start the day... s&P futures +200...

US Today

Key events to watch, and why, on May 3

04/30/99 18:18 ET

AGENDA:
--0830 ET: Mar personal income & outlays (Feb: income +0.5%, outlays +0.7%; Forecast: +0.3%, outlays +0.4%)

--0915 ET: US Energy Secretary Bill Richardson speaks at Americas Council conference

--1000 ET: Mar construction spending (Feb: +2.2%; Forecast: +0.2%)

--1000 ET: Apr National Association of Purchasing Management survey of purchasing managers (Mar: 54.3%; Forecast: 54.0%)

--1045 ET: World Bank President James Wolfensohn takes part in a panel
discussion at Americas Council conference

--1230 ET: US Deputy Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers speaks at Americas
Council conference
--1330 ET: Treasury announces results of its auction of $15.0 bln in 13 and 26-week bills; (Previous: 13-week accepted rate 4.335%, 26-week 4.410%)

WHAT TO WATCH FOR: The April NAPM report is the one to watch after the
stronger-than-expected first-quarter GDP and Chicago purchasers reports spooked bonds Friday. Look for bonds to extend their losses on a stronger-than-expected NAPM number. The World BankKs Wolfensohn and US TreasuryKs Summers will be watched, but the markets may not react much to more official-speak after being bombarded by G7 officialsK statements last week.

FOREX: With the Japan and the UK markets closed, US trading is likely to be very quiet and barely changed on the opening. The Obuchi-Clinton meeting will inject additional cautiousness in the market. Traders are likely to stick primarily to customer order execution. Naturally, any surprise in the Kosovo crisis should generate havoc, even though traders have lost significant amounts of money lately as they fell for the false signs of peace.

Media://Chart:EURUSD:/symbol=$$EURUSD
Media://Chart:USDJPY:/symbol=$$USDJPY
Media://Chart:EURJPY:/symbol=$$EURJPY
Media://Chart:GBPUSD:/symbol=$$GBPUSD

BONDS: The unexpected strength in the Chicago purchasers index has the market jittery about Monday's NAPM reading. If the manufacturing strength is confirmed, it could spell additional trouble for bonds. However, the big plunge Friday left the market at the low end of its recent range and a level where there is significant support. So, any further losses are probably limited.

Media://Chart:30YR-BOND:/symbol=US@?US30Y

STOCKS: US stocks will take their cue from the April National Association of Purchasing Management survey after both bonds and stocks were slammed Friday by stronger-than-expected GDP figures in one of the most volatile weeks ever. Analysts are unsure whether investors will continue putting money into cyclical stocks. Cyclicals pushed the Dow to records three days in a row last week, while
Internet stocks took a hammering. Browing-Ferris Industries, Atlantic-Richfield and Cigna are among companies reporting earnings Monday.

Media://Chart:Dow_Jones:/symbol=US&DJI

ENERGY: Brokers and traders are mixed about Jun crude's direction Monday. One trader said a technical bearish formation is coming up that could push crude levels to test support at $18.22 and later at $18.00. "I still think we're heading down," one broker said. "But I've been licking my wounds a lot." Some expected GDP figures, gold could get some upside mileage as longs cling to the possibility of inflation creeping higher in the future. In the near term, COMEX
Jun gold sees heavy resistance at $290 per ounce.
Media://Chart:Jun_Gold:/symbol=US@GC99M




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To: kathyh who wrote (35210)5/3/1999 7:38:00 AM
From: kathyh  Respond to of 90042
 
sunw now mentioned in ATT/Comcast deal... as possible MSFT rival that ATT&T might choose over MSFT for hardware to run set top boxes... this may have been posted...

Report: MediaOne, AT&T have deal
Can titans AOL, Microsoft help save Comcast bid?

By Jeffry Bartash, CBS MarketWatch
Last Update: 1:20 AM ET May 3, 1999 NewsWatch
Media Report
Telecom Report

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- MediaOne Group's board of directors approved a $62 billion buyout offer from AT&T over the weekend, Comcast Treasurer John Alchin said in published reports.

The move gives rival Comcast Corp. until Thursday to make a better offer.

MediaOne's decision may set off a bidding war for the Englewood, Colo.-based cable company among telecom, Internet and cable titans.


Today on CBS MarketWatch
Economic checkup ahead
Clueless Investor: Glenayre falls with paging industry
Genentech to open defense in U.C.S.F patent case
Paul Erdman looks at mounting Kosovo cost
StockWatch: Europe Net use hinges on phones
More top stories...
CBS MarketWatch Columns
Updated:
5/2/99 4:36:48 PM ET



A spokeswoman for AT&T declined comment. Comcast could not immediately be reached for comment Sunday.

On Friday, it apeared American Online and Microsoft would join the effort to help Comcast fend off the higher bid from AT&T.

Friday, MediaOne confirmed it had signed confidentiality pacts with AOL and Microsoft, under which the companies can discuss a potential alliance.

Microsoft officials could not be reached.

AOL and Microsoft's maneuvers came just a week after AT&T submitted a surprise $62 billion bid for Media One, topping Comcast's (CMCSK: news, msgs) $48 billion offer put forth in March. While the value of the deals have fluctuated with changes in the companies' stock prices, AT&T's bid was about $6 billion higher.

AOL and Microsoft consider high-speed data and Internet service vitally important to their future. They worry that AT&T could gain too much control and block them from lucrative new opportunities.

T
NYSE

Last Chg.
50 1/2 -2 5/8
% Chg. Vol.
-4.94% 18,625,400
Day Lo. Day Hi.
50 1/16 54
Open Prev.
53 15/16 53 1/8

As of
May 03/99 7:31 am ET
Last Trade
53 1/8
20 MIN. DELAY


Still, even if those industry heavyweights decide to step into the ring with AT&T, analysts doubt Ma Bell is going to retreat to its corner. It could turn into a knock-down, drag-em-out fight.

Shares of MediaOne (UMG: news, msgs) rose 2 1/4 to 81 5/8. AOL (AOL: news, msgs) climbed 1 3/8 to 142 3/4. Microsoft (MSFT: news, msgs) dipped 3/4 to 81 5/16. AT&T (T: news, msgs) slipped 2 5/8 to 50 1/2. And Comcast (CMCSK: news, msgs) declined 1/16 to 65 11/16.

The clock is ticking

If AT&T (T: news, msgs) were to acquire MediaOne, it would gain access to more than half the country via cable TV wires, which can carry more traffic at greater speeds than phone wiring. AT&T already bought Tele-Communications Inc., the second largest U.S. cable operator, and has a deal with the largest cable provider, Time Warner, to offer high-speed service over its network.

AOL is especially fearful that its customers won't be able to reach AOL via Ma Bell's cable lines, at least not without paying a hefty markup above current monthly fees. That could drive its customers to choose a lower-priced AT&T-affiliated online service such as At Home (ATHM: news, msgs), AOL worries.

UMG
NYSE

Last Chg.
81 5/8 +2 1/4
% Chg. Vol.
+2.83% 5,578,200
Day Lo. Day Hi.
79 3/4 81 13/16
Open Prev.
81 79 3/8

As of
May 03/99 7:31 am ET
Last Trade
79 3/8
20 MIN. DELAY


While AOL has struck deals with several Baby Bell local phone carriers to offer high-speed service over so-called DSL-type lines, cable is far faster and seen as the best bet in expanding high-speed access to a mass market.

"One of the things AOL has struggled with is how to exploit the broadband network," said David Levy, an online analyst at Furman Selz. It makes sense, he said, for the company to at least explore its options.


Where do you want to go today?

Microsoft, meanwhile, recently paid $1 billion for a 5 percent stake in Comcast and doesn't want to see its investment go awry, industry observers say.

More important, Microsoft wants its software to run the souped-up cable boxes atop TV sets. It's worried that AT&T could choose rival software from Microsoft's archenemy, Sun Microsystems (SUNW: news, msgs). The market for the new cable boxes, "intelligent" equipment geared to act as communications control centers for consumers, is expected to be quite lucrative.

"Microsoft's main mission is to find out how to become a major player in information delivery," said analyst Thomas Hensel of Everen Securities. "They have been held back by lack of bandwidth."


While analysts have been skeptical that Comcast could beat AT&T's offer, the latest news could portend one of the biggest takeover battles ever, pitting the country's leading phone carrier, software maker and online service against each other.

MSFT
NASD

Last Chg.
81 5/16 -0 3/4
% Chg. Vol.
-0.91% 29,279,300
Day Lo. Day Hi.
79 7/8 83 3/4
Open Prev.
82 3/4 82 1/16

As of
May 03/99 7:31 am ET
Last Trade
82 1/16
15 MIN. DELAY


Ironically, AOL and Microsoft appear to be teaming up for a scrap with AT&T at the same the pair are crossing swords on another front.

As part of its defense against antitrust charges, Microsoft lawyers will grill three AOL executives, including Chairman Steve Case, about the AOL-Netscape merger and alliance with Sun Microsystems. In testimony earlier in the trial, Netscape CEO James Barksdale said Case had referred to Microsoft as the "enemy" and the "Axis," while calling AOL, Netscape and Sun executives "FDR," "Churchill" and "Stalin."

Key deal for AT&T

Aggressive AT&T chieftain C. Michael Armstrong is not likely to be deterred by AOL and Microsoft's involvement, analysts say. The long-distance behemoth is determined to gain access to as many cable lines as it can in an effort to bypass the monopoly the Baby Bells hold over local phone lines in homes and businesses.

The carrier's goal is to become a "one-stop" provider of telecom services, including TV, local and long-distance and especially profitable data and Internet access.

CMCK


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Thus, the advanced state of MediaOne's cable systems, which already offer phone service in some markets, is a perfect strategic fit with with AT&T. In addition, MediaOne owns a 25 percent interest in Time Warner's cable arm, Time Warner Entertainment, the acquisition of which would give AT&T stronger influence with the nation's largest cable operator while removing Comcast as potential threat.

AOL worries AT&T will use that influence to push a merger between potential rivals At Home and RoadRunner, the two dominant cable-based Internet service providers. AT&T owns a controlling interest in At Home, while Time Warner controls Roadrunner.

If Comcast were to win a bidding war with AOL's help, however, that would create a cable system with potential access to nearly a quarter of all U.S. households. AOL would likely be granted favorable terms to access customers through Comcast's cable lines, greatly easing their anxiety about broadband access.Microsoft, for its part, would be able to sell its cable set-top software to Comcast.

Jeffry Bartash is a reporter for CBS MarketWatch. The Associated Press contributed to this report.