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Pastimes : Kosovo -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: James R. Barrett who wrote (6410)	5/2/1999 8:19:00 PM
From: Douglas V. Fant	Respond to of 17770

James, Intersting article raising a thought of my own. Serbia has been stting back not risking their air defense system-until now.... Are Yugoslavian Air Defense Efforts Intensifying? 1855 GMT, 990502 On Friday night we reported that observers in Belgrade observed the simultaneous launch of multiple surface to air missiles. We speculated that this might represent a shift in Serbian air defense strategy. The Serbs appeared to be finally opening up with their air defenses. Last night there was a confirmed shoot down of an F-16, a forced landing of an A-10 that appeared to have been damaged by ground fire and a report from NATO that a U.S. Marine Harrier crashed in the Adriatic during a training exercise. Leaving aside the latter, which may well have causes other then Serbian action, it seems to us that Yugoslav air defense units are getting more aggressive. The Serbs have clearly been preserving their air defense capabilities. This is not only designed to preserve scarce missiles, but also to protect launch facilities from NATO counter-measures. Our expectation was that the Serbs were preserving their anti-air capability for either a ground war or for positioning during the negotiation phase, in order to maximize their bargaining position by demonstrating their ongoing capabilities. Since we strongly doubt that a ground war is likely, it appears to us that the Serbs have decided that the negotiations are going to require a crescendo of activity. Having preserved their air defenses, now is clearly the time to use them. Thus, just as NATO has been carrying out intense air attacks in the last few days to, in the French foreign minister's phrase, "pressurize" the negotiations, the Serbs may have decided to increase their own pressure. Obviously, the more they use their SAMs the more they use them up and lose them to NATO counter-attacks. However, it is clear after last night's actions that the Yugoslavs are indeed increasing their effectiveness. Now, none of this deals with ongoing Serbian claims that they have shot down dozens of allied planes, claims denied by NATO. We tend to accept the NATO view on that for three reasons. First, the Serb failure to produce evidence of the shot down planes. Second, it is doubtful that NATO could conceal losses on that order from the media. Reporters would rapidly pick up information on the shootdowns at NATO air bases, in Brussels and Mons and in the various capitals, particularly Washington. Finally, in our view, shooting down advanced NATO aircraft using the systems available to the Serbs is extremely difficult. In our view, a maximum effort yielded last night's total. Less than a maximum effort is not likely to yield much. NATO suppression of enemy air defenses (SEAD) systems are state of the art. But the fact is that Serbia has begun extracting a toll. That, coupled with undoubted stress on pilots and aircraft after five weeks of continual missions is sure to increase casualties to some degree. It will be interesting to see whether Serb anti-air action will cause NATO to shift away from infrastructure attacks and back to SEAD attacks during the night, or whether they will continue to run in parallel.