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Technology Stocks : Micron Only Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bill F. who wrote (45525)	5/2/1999 9:29:00 PM
From: phbolton	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 53903

64MB/PC100 for $45. Thats right $45!. That gives an ASP of below $5. Generic 64MB SDRAM PC100 8x64 168pin true pc100 compliant, 7, 8ns $ 45 $10, no handling fee 5/2/99 1:51:36 AM CDT Connect Computers 888-277-6287 949-367-0703 -- P.O.'s accepted Online Ordering CA - Major Brands 64MB SDRAM PC100 x64 PC 100 Mhz SDRAM suitable for all Pentium and Pentium II Lifetime Warranty $ 45 low rates 5/2/99 7:04:02 PM CDT AccessMicro.com 800-906-6868 949-727-1828 Online Ordering CA RW0864100 Generic 64MB SDRAM DIMM - 8x64 PC100 6ns, 7ns, or 8ns - PC100 8x64 For 440BX Chipset. 3.3 Volt - 168Pin - Lifetime Guaranteed $ 45 No Data 5/1/99 2:19:20 PM CDT BestSource International 888-237-8768 714-985-1607 -- P.O.'s accepted Online Ordering CA BSI64MB Major Brands 64MB SDRAM DIMM - 8x64 PC100 6ns, 7ns, or 8ns - 3.3 Volt - 168Pin - Lifetime Guaranteed Lifetime Warranty -TRUE PC100 COMPLIANT $ 46 No Data 5/2/99 12:58:59 AM CDT Advanced PCBoost 800-382-6678 -- P.O.'s accepted Online Ordering CA - Major Brands 64MB PC100 8x64 7or8ns In Stock - LIMIT 1pc per customer Life time warranty $ 46 No Data 5/1/99 12:03:28 PM CDT Computer Super Sale 877-964-4341 847-296-2683 IL -

To: Bill F. who wrote (45525)	5/2/1999 9:45:00 PM
From: phbolton	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 53903

Tad/Fab/Bill (1) I agree that MP3 (or whatever the final format is) will be the next big thing and that it will have almost no effect on Micron other than some of its competitors will make money on it, the rio is a lot smaller than a casette player-3 1/2" x 2 1/2" x 5/8" and the Samsung demo is closer to the size of a credit card (2) There is no reason why there has to be another up cycle in DRAM. The last big spike was due to a number of events (glue factory fire, etc) that may never happen again. Also, non-embedded DRAM in low price PCs has a limited future. The system on a chips that Fab mentions already exist in demo form. There may be "chip cycles" but there need not be cycles for each component. (3) This downturn in prices is almost unprecedented. The ASP has dropped almost 50% in 2 months or so. As Bill says this is gonna be real bad. All those rosy models of MU's future had ASPs at 7.50 or so at the end of 99. (4) Geez, I've almost talked myself into a more bearish position.

To: Bill F. who wrote (45525)	5/2/1999 9:50:00 PM
From: Fabeyes	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53903

64K DRAMS were two for a quarter in the early 80's.... We were happy to get that sometimes. Marketing would sell some, to Apple, for a nickel. Boy those were great times; I lie.

To: Bill F. who wrote (45525)	5/3/1999 9:09:00 AM
From: A. A. LaFountain III	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 53903

Re: "a LONG way to go before we get to the bottom" At the risk of sounding like Bill Clinton, what does LONG mean? About the only thing I remember from calculus is that an integral is the area under a curve (or something like that). So to correct an oversupply situation, we should be looking for the revenue integral, which would consist of price x units. Given that the unit stream is relatively predictable, the length of the "way to go before we get to the bottom" can refer to either the extent of the price movement or the duration of below-trend pricing (or both). As prices have been creamed over the past three months, my tendency is to believe that the correction process is well underway. That may be my childlike innocence again leading to an unwarranted enthusiasm (sure, and that happens all the time). But the rationale is that semiconductor companies in general, and DRAM vendors in particular, are still dealing with the psychological aftershocks of 1998. Having reinstituted their capital spending plans in the second half of 1996 in the belief that the cycle had run its course (in six months, for Heaven's sake, after three years of excessive investment), these boards of directors discovered to their horror twelve months later that all they had done was further screw up their balance sheets while decimating their income statements. In my opinion, capital spending since then has been involuntary (I know that sounds screwy, but I sincerely believe that unlike 1994-95, these boards have spent what they have because they felt they had to, not because they wanted to). Micron's management can be faulted for pursuing an expansion plan based on a strategy that could well be fundamentally flawed. But, interestingly enough, having been a critic of that strategy for several quarters and having watched in horror as the stock went up for what I thought was all the wrong reasons, I now find myself increasingly thinking that it might work out in any event. There's still little temptation to pay up for the privilege of participating in this (hence a continued valuation discipline on my part), but we're getting closer to what could be a valid entry point. And if that entry point leads to another 20>80 move, then I would again be forced to miss much of the move, because I certainly don't see the dynamics of the cycle being easy or extreme on the upside (for many of the reasons that have been stated with such articulation on this thread). I am very mindful of the horror stories of DRAM history. One incident that always sticks with me is listening to Gordon Hoffman describe the Mostek experience several years after the fact and stating that at one point, it was like shipping the 64K parts with a dollar bill wrapped around every one. As an investor, I find such experiences abhorrent. But they are not universal or unchanging. I believe that when the investment community forgets about such times, it's probably a good time to avoid related securities. Yet, when all you hear about are circumstances similar to such events, then the risk/reward has probably corrected to a level worthy of investment interest. So I share many of the concerns so well stated by you and others. But at the right price (or anywhere near it, for that matter), I'm willing to look past some or all of them. We'll probably be in discussion for the next several months about what constitutes the right price (and I look forward to continuing the dialogue). - Tad LaFountain