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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: dennis michael patterson who wrote (20786)	5/3/1999 1:33:00 PM
From: Challo Jeregy	Respond to of 42787

Nice move on BRCM For a change! <g> Pure luck! Yep, techs look sickly. (What an understmt!!!<VBG>) Getting closer to the bottom than the top, that's for sure!

To: dennis michael patterson who wrote (20786)	5/4/1999 11:53:00 AM
From: Robert Graham	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42787

The NASDAQ has been operating in a congestion area at least since late Friday based on the 60 minute chart. A congestion area is made up of S&Rs impeding movement of price along with the characteristic of the price to be able to suddenly reverse and run the other direction but still remain in the congestion area. The congestion area from what I can determine is basically 2500 to 2550 and can go as far back as 2485 and as for forward as 2580. I am new to establishing boundaries of congestion areas. This is a rather large congestion area that can take at least a couple days of good buying or selling to transverse. But then once an important S&R is hit, the price can quickly reverse and run the other direction. So do not be deceived by false attempts at a breakout. Also the price in a congestion area can reverse when there is no apparent S&R. Even when there is a breakout of apparent boundaries, the price can reverse an run back into the congestion area. A look at the Stoch shows me that a move upward is possible today. The MACD bounced off of support and right now can go either way, for it is at a point of transition. Before the open today the broader bias was down per daily Stochs. We need to look for a breakout of this congestion area. The RS chart shows what we already know, that money is continuing to move from the NASDAQ to the DJIA. That is what has helped the DJIA to above 11,000 yesterday. I wonder if money from the sidelines is also helping. For the DJIA can now be gauged more by its momentum properties. I see a continuation of this index, but it is near to a pullback. The pullback will help tell us what can come next. DJIA demonstrating unusual strength for recent history. We also need to be prepared down the line for just as steep of a pullback. The techs are not the place to be. Why not consider risk as an important part of the trade that needs to be properly managed? But this also means the market has lost its tech leadership. This means that if more money from the sidelines does not replace the money lost in the NASDAQ market for a resumption of the tech leadership, we can find the market where it started from with small or no gains for the year. Markets are like rubber bands that given time can stretch to a new norm for the longer term. New money can stretch that rubber band to a new norm. Without new money, the rubber band can snap back. Update Looks like a breakout to the upside was made and price exstention is occurring. However, not that it can reverse from here. 2580 next resistance on the upside. The blue chips like MSFT and INTC participating in the intraday move up. Stocks like EBAY and CMGI, and to a smaller extent ATHM and AMZN and CNET also moving up. Stocks like AOL and EMC and INKT and INSP not participating in this move. Many of the techs not participating, including the Internets. So this is a tentative move at best for the NASDAQ with some of these stocks moving up showing nearby resistance. Comments welcome! Bob Graham