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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gabriel008 who wrote (121955)	5/3/1999 3:45:00 PM
From: stockman_scott	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

<<But unless DELL achieves 18 cents or higher the $50 won't be maintained after the report.>> I agree with you Gabriel. I am expecting DELL to generate 45%++ y/y sales increases and atleast .18 EPS. This would be above the current expectations -- and would justify a price up in the 50s. Of course DELL's guidance about the future will be important as well. Best Regards, Scott

To: Gabriel008 who wrote (121955)	5/3/1999 3:47:00 PM
From: JRI	Respond to of 176387

Outstanding Gabriel...on behalf of the entire thread, we are extremely grateful......maybe I'll put a little sand in a jar, and send it up to you....<g> Thanks again.

To: Gabriel008 who wrote (121955)	5/3/1999 3:48:00 PM
From: W.B. Michaels	Respond to of 176387

RE:Gabriel-Thanks for the excellent post.wbm

To: Gabriel008 who wrote (121955)	5/3/1999 4:14:00 PM
From: Chuzzlewit	Respond to of 176387

For some reason we seem to go through this discussion every quarter. I believe that all of the industry data are reported on the basis of the usual calendar quarters (December, March, June September), not on the basis of the fiscal quarter that the company may use. The other recurring source of confusion is that the data are estimates of factory output, not sales to the ultimate customer. That makes direct comparison during Q4 and Q1 difficult, since indirect sellers are inflating their channels during Q4 and deflating the channels during Q1. TTFN, CTC

To: Gabriel008 who wrote (121955)	5/4/1999 12:10:00 AM
From: jim kelley	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 176387

Gabriel, RE: DELL's earnings and revenue for Q1-00 ***************************************************** Using the following assumptions: ASP = 96% of Q4 OPEX = 9% R&D =74M COGS= 22.4% I get the following results: Sales 5.9 Units 2.6 M with 182 K units pushed to Q2 Earnings = 511 M EPS= 18.7 cents per share Revenue growth rate YOY = 51% EPS growth rate YOY = 72 % Stock price target = $ 56 to $60 per share Alternative Analysis: It is clear that if DELL chose to , it may have taken the extra 182 k units in Q1 rather than pushing them to Q2. If Q2 is looking strong and there is sufficient production capacity there would be no reason to push them to Q2-00. In that case the results are as follows: Revenue = 6276 EPS = 20 cents per share Revenue Growth YOY= 60% EPS growth YOY = 84% Target Price = $67 to $ 72 dollars per share Summary: Just my SWAG on the earnings report. The earnings I calculate are higher than what you have due to the cost control effort on both R&D and OPEX. I am assuming that the component cost reductions are being passed through and that the IBM royalty abatement is also being passed through. I am using the same 585 K unit number for January. No revenue or earnings allowance is being made here for Gigabuys or External Storage systems. Regards, Jim Kelley