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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Pravin Kamdar who wrote (57101)	5/3/1999 4:18:00 PM
From: Yougang Xiao	Respond to of 1572911

So much for PIII smokes out K7 discussion: jc-news.com "This is a fake benchmark perpetrated by a guy who called himself AcermanPS. He lurks around at a Thai webboard called www.pantip.com at tech-exchange section. He claimed to be working for Acer in Singapore but his IP address comes from Kasetsart University in Bangkok, Thailand. He is the same guy who, a few months ago, claimed that he can overclock Celeron 300A to 600 MHz using only a fan. When pressed, for details, he defaulted with no proof whatsoever." I should also point out another poignant bit: "Win2k beta has a licence that says that it isn't allowed to be used for benchmarking or performance testing".

To: Pravin Kamdar who wrote (57101)	5/3/1999 4:39:00 PM
From: kash johal	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1572911

Pravin, Re: Copper and 0.18 If they can yield 0.18 micron with Copper in Q4 I guess you are right. They may be able to get real close to 800-900 Mhz IF they can yield it. On the other hand if yields suck for 1-2 Quarters, AMD will have dismal financial performance as it needs to cover the overhead of dresden. Supposedly Dresden starts in Q3 and so AMD's breakeven sales will likely ramp up close to 1Bn/qtr by Q4. If they produce 1M+pcs in Q4 at $500 apiece then it's a piece of cake for a profitable Q4. If they can only produce say <200K pcs in Q4 then I suspect Q4 losses may exceed Q1. My best guess is that it will be Q1 2000 that AMD will show a profit and K7 gets seriously cranked up. As you know stuff has 12 week lead-times. And motherboards and chip sets all need to hit the manufcaturing line by mid July to realize income in early Q4. I cannot see folks ramping up volumes of 500K/mo in July when it's not even clear if AMD can deliver anything more than a few 0.25 micron units. Regards, Kash

To: Pravin Kamdar who wrote (57101)	5/3/1999 4:50:00 PM
From: Paul Engel	Respond to of 1572911

Pravin - Re: " At 0.13u we may see a role reversal, where Intel stumbles and AMD has smooth sailing." Another AMDroid, praying for not one, but TWO miracles ! Re: "AMD can double their total capacity by opening the Dresden fab, with half of their total capacity in copper" Sure - Dresden will go from 0 CPUs/Month to 5.5 million CPUs/month instantaneously - just like AMD has ramped MegaFlop 25. Paul

To: Pravin Kamdar who wrote (57101)	5/3/1999 7:08:00 PM
From: Yousef	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1572911

Pravin, Re: "I think the copper process that AMD is putting in place in Dresden will put them on par with, if not better than, Intel's technology in Q4, '99" You must be "kidding", Pravin ... AMD doesn't even have Cu parts in reliability testing yet. The process is a long way from "production". The "inside word" is that the Motorolo Cu process had a number of "bugs" and wasn't ready for "production". That's what happens when you count on another company to do your process development. Make It So, Yousef

To: Pravin Kamdar who wrote (57101)	5/3/1999 11:57:00 PM
From: Process Boy	Respond to of 1572911

Pravin - <Also, with lessons learned with 0.18u copper, AMD should have a much smoother transition to 0.13u copper than Intel. At 0.13u we may see a role reversal, where Intel stumbles and AMD has smooth sailing. This time next year should be very interesting.> Thank you for throwing down the gauntlet. Should give me more incentive to do my little part in ensuring this scenario doesn't happen. BTW, I believe you have apparently bought the hype about Cu. I would suggest taking Kash's and Yousef's comments to heart, and exercise some restraint when managing your expectations about just what Cu will do for AMD. I seriously doubt Cu interconnects of a competitor will be the undoing of Intel, even if it performs half way decent. Also, Intel has had a Cu pilot going for quite some time now. Something you might wish to consider when generating comments such as those above. I believe Intel is generally regarded as having superior process technology. This doesn't happen by waving magic wands. Magic wands for process development would be nice though...but I digress. :-) PB